Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Cameron Wants Scotland to say 'Yes'?

After the SNP success in 2007 the then New Labour Government should have seen the writing on the wall. It was clear as they moved ever rightward their vote share in Scotland shifted to the SNP. Instead of seeing 2007 as a warning about their future electoral hopes in Scotland they chose instead to play the clumsy Brown's 'British Card' and cut Scotland's pocket money, kill off some leading edge technology development, to show the Scots who was still boss. The end result of this failure to engage with the people of Scotland was the SNP outright majority in 2011 - a failure the MacMilliband Party in Scotland remain in denial over.

If Westminster were at all interested in the political reform of the UK they would have allowed the 'devo max' option in the 2014 Scottish referendum. Instead Milliband, Clegg and Cameron made clear such an option would be over their dead bodies (a situation which may come to a political pass after September 2014). The gap between 'Yes and NO' for 2014 has closed to 10% but the swing is all going the 'Yes' vote's way. Scots see what the Westminster of the three Tory Parties is doing to health, education and welfare in England and want none of it for Scotland.

The time for a UK wide solution to Westminster's self interest has been lost. The opportunity to create change was missed with the removal of the Devo-max option from the Scottish referendum. You could not have had devomax in Scotland with out breaking up Westminster's UK hegemony and reducing it to being England's parliament with agreed common interest such as Defence, Finance/ economics and Foreign Affairs being suceded to a federally constituted 'Council of the British Isles'.

This could only be achieved by breaking up the current Union, in the first place, as the creation of a federal entity is outside of Westminster's legal and constitutional powers. Such a change from a unitary parliament to a federal agreement can only be established between the sovereign governments of England and Scotland under the terms of the 1706 Union Treaty, which created Westminster as it currently exists.

The question is would the sovereign people of Scotland or England vote to enter this new federal union given the antipathy stirred up by the current UK Government about 'scrounging Scots'?

This is the corner Blair, Brown and now Cameron have constitutionally painted themselves into - increased devolution (devo-max for Scotland) breaks Westminster's hegemony and forces it to do something about the democratic dissonance in England. If Scotland votes 'No' in 2014 the pressure to reform Westminster does not go away, it will become greater as suceding more powers to Scotland will simply drive the same wish in England's regions.

The best solution for Westminster is for the Scots to go, the current political status quo remains at Westminster and neo-liberal, London centric policies will continue to be sold as the 'best deal for England'. The Westminster politicians will continue to rely on the apathy of the English electorate to keep them in the way they have become accustomed.

The difference between the levels of public services in Scotland compared to England will continue to be peddled on some strain of 'English subsidy to Scotland' while the truth will be without an independent Scotland in sterling, sterling would plummet like a stone within two years, according to a UK Government Report, £1 Scots would be worth £1.20p sterling. This would increase the costs in England of food, drink and energy and is another reason the 'Bank of England', which is partly owned by Scotland, would not be pressing for Scotland to be booted out of Sterling anytime soon.

I am increasingly coming to believe, that for reasons of internal politics within England and to avoid the growing pressure to reform the Westminster political system, the three Tory Parties at Westminster are praying Scotland votes 'Yes' in 2014, whilst saying otherwise.

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