Monday, 16 November 2015

War Guru or not a Guru, that is the question ...

There is a strange thing that happens among my family and close friends when the UK Government gets all bellicose and foot stomping about other nations nefarious actions and a question arises, driven by the fact I have been in a shooting conflict, is there going to be a war?

There is a growing awareness that one stupid move by Putin or Obama's military muscle could drag Europe into a Middle East war few, if any Europeans, with a shred of common sense, would wish to be involved in. The reality is such a conflict would flash back into Europe via the Balkans and turn the present ugly situation in the Ukraine into a potential 'Poland' style line in the sand between NATO, the EU and Russia.

Why has it come to this?

In simple terms the Saudi Arabian Government wished to flex its muscles and demonstrate just who is the boss of the Muslim World in the Middle East, especially the Arabian Peninsula and asked its best buddy, the USA, for help. The Saudi's had this idea of how to end the secular state of Syria and the Assad regime's rule by fomenting a civil war between the largely Sunni opposition and Assad's Shi'ite followers. Saudi had lots of radicalised young men who they did not want hoping off to Al Qu'da and becoming a threat to the Saudi hierarchy by the back door. So some Saudi Princette thought, why not create our own Al Qu'da and direct it at Assad's Syria?

Now while everyone seems to be agog at Putin announcing this over the last couple of days, those of us following what has been happening have been telling you, dear readers, this same set of facts for over 18 months. Da'esh were initially funded by Saudi Arabia, armed by the CIA and trained by UK and Israeli special forces. The raison d'etre being to remove Assad and the last 'problem state', in the Saudi's eyes, in their Sunni sphere of influence. As a bonus, Iran would lose its last remaining ally on the Arabian peninsula and take another heavy hit from the Saudi's. With Assad's Syria out of the way an accommodation could be made with Israel over the 'Palestinian problem' to facilitate Egypt, Saudi and Israel making loads of dosh out of the oil and gas fields lying in the Mediterranean, just off the Gaza Strip, amongst other potentially lucrative spin offs. While Assad was being removed Egypt was brought back into the fold through the removal of the rather too religious, in the wrong way for Saudi tastes, socialist leaning, Muslim Brotherhood from any semblance of power.

Maybe the USA's NSA / CIA thought Putin was too wrapped up with the Ukraine to bother helping out Assad or felt signals had been sent out that Russia could not care less about Assad but some where along the line people forgot that Syria has been a long standing client state of Russia and the Russian Navy needs access to Syrian ports to function effectively in the Mediterranean. Iran, who play Russia off against the USA at every turn, started turning the screws on Putin, probably along the lines of we will not play ball with the IEAA over our nuclear program if you let our only ally on the Arabian Peninsula, Assad, fall.

As Iranian and Russia supplies and military advisors poured into Syria, the early easy gains stopped and Da'esh started taking big hits while also finding the many anti-Assad groupings had little interest in their Saudi, Sunni, reactionary, religious nuttery. The Syrians were quite happy being a secular state, thanks very much, so don't bring your stoning to death, head and hand removing nonsense around here because we are not swapping one vicious regime for another one which is even worse. So Da'esh took the hint and decided to take over Iraq instead and were doing quite well until the Iraqi Kurds said, in effect, thus far and no further which in turn began to give Asian Turkey cause for concern as the USA armed the Kurds because the US State Department said, the Iraqi Kurdish Forces are the only force inside Iraq with the commitment and ability to stop Da'esh in their tracks. The last thing Turkey or Iran wants along their borders are well armed and trained Kurds making noises about an autonomous Kurdish State.

In summary Russia and Iran back Assad's government in Syria for historic, geographic, political and religious reasons  while the Saudis, with the exception of Israel, want a Sunni Arabian Peninsula controlled by them, funded by their largess, backed by USA military muscle and operated by USA mega Corporations like EXXON, Haliburton, Gulf and the rest.

Da'esh basically are after the same outcome as the Saudi's but without the 'Laisse' or any idea of being fair in any normal sense of the word, with no room for an Israeli state or US involvement in any shape or form. Weirdly you would think this should make them best mates with Al Qu'da but apparently it does the exact opposite, on the grounds of similar religious nuttery magnetic poles find each other utterly and often fatally repellent.

So will the USA and Russia come to blows, dragging a reluctant Europe into a Islamic religious, kitty litter tray war that will make Afghanistan look like a cake walk?

The answer to this is a confident, certainly not, because both want rid of the Saudi's, out of control, Frankenstein monster creation - Da'esh. In the meantime both the USA and Russia are anxiously looking over their shoulder at a resurgent China and its re-emergence as a very big player in the Asian play pen; after decades of hiding behind its Maoist bamboo curtain, going nowhere very fast.

Any major conflict in the Arabian Peninsula would cause destabilisation in Europe's Balkans and Russia's Caucuses regions with the added problem for NATO of Turkey's inevitable split between the more secular, Europhile, Europe leaning Istanbul side of the Bosphoros and the increasingly religiously orthodox, Muslim leaning Ankara. Any all out war would destabilise Iran, Iraq and Turkey as the Kurds would push for their own autonomous state, as part of any coalition, taking chunks out of all three countries including a lot of oil and gas fields.

Last but not least, think of the mayhem a Netanyahu lead, right wing Zionist inspired, Israel would cause as it looked to create a 'Greater Israel' for its own security as a result of a full blown Shi'ite versus Sunni religious war on the Arabian peninsula, by swallowing up Jordan and the Sinai to achieve this.

The discussion, agreement and new settlement needs to be primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia as this conflict has, at its base, the millennium old antipathy between the Shi'ites and the Sunni Islamic religious sects. With the best will in the world we need them to sort this religious cat and dog fight out, create a workable accommodation before deciding on any new state boundaries required to resolve the divisive impact of the Balfour Treaty of 1919. This will not happen until both Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to call off their attack dogs Da'esh, Hezbolla, Talliban and Al Qu'eda if, and it is a very big 'if', they still have any remnant of control over them.

Until that happens the European nations, Russia and the USA need to stand well clear and supply no further munitions to any side or allow themselves to be sucked into a sandy and even nastier version of Vietnam for the 21st Century, by putting troops on the ground and making them targets for both Shi'ite and Sunni religious groupings.

So as the imbecile Cameron goes around beating a tattoo on his toy drum, telling us to get out our pop guns and follow him into battle and we watch as he empties out his bent, broken and unkempt tin army, I think we all should make very clear to him to put his army, ships and planes back in his Tory toy box because we are not interested in saving the Saudi's, Exxon's and Haliburton's of this world from their own Frankenstein monster nor are we interested in letting the right wing Zionist plague that is Netanyahu's Israel out of the bottle either. Syria needs stabilised before there can be any sensible discussion on how to sort out the shambles Bush and Blair's Middle East policies have left Iraq, and the region as a whole, in.

A discussion which only Saudi Arabia and Iran can have with any short or long term hope for a peaceful resolution in the region.

1 comment:

  1. Splendid analysis.

    Pity Cameron and his coven of Anglo-Brit pro Yoosa Blairite/LibDem war-mongers don't get it and, as a bloody consequence, enforce mass murder on an epic industrial scale compared to Attila the Hun and other blood-soaked despots and their corporate media cheer-leaders.

    Time long overdue to get out of this murderous obscenity posing as a bipartite Union and act as an independent haven and beacon for popular democratic, peaceful, citizen sovereignty regardless of ethnicity, color. and creed or none of the latter.