There comes a point in everybody's life where you read or hear something and your brain just comes up with an 'error; unable to compute' message. You re-read or hear the same statement again and your brain then simply shuts down and no matter how many times you try to re-boot it it tells you it can no longer deal with the total mince you are asking it to deal with so tells you to 'git tae Freuchie, ye wee bauchle afore ye dae ma heid in.'
Currently I am talking to friends in Nepal about how I can help in the re-building programs of basic infrastructure (fresh water and sanitation) in the remote and rural areas effected by the earthquake (6.8 after shocks today in the Kathmandu Valley after heavy rain and thunder storms over night). You know, things that really matter; the mundane supply of picks, shovels, concrete, plastic piping of different bores, taps and loo porcelain - stuff which will make a real difference.
Part of this process has required me to keep Facebook open, as that is currently the best channel for communication. Sadly this involves me in seeing posts of the latest Murphyism and the unsustainable Labour claim which goes with it. I have long since filtered out any posts which are Tory or Libdem related as they have nothing left to say to Scotland, only about Scotland's drift to what they see as support for Fascism / Nazism both of which define the 'shouters' politics rather than the SNP's.
For argument's sake let us give today's over the top TNS poll an error margin of 10% and apply the worst case scenario of the state of play in Scotland indicated by the TNS survey which gives us Labour on 32% and the SNP on 44%. So even if you give Labour the best possible case and the SNP the worst possible case the SNP lead is a healthy 12% points. If you do the same on the other polls, applying the more likely statistical error of 5% either way, in favour of Labour the results comes up with a 10 to 12 % lead for the SNP. The basis of FPTP means that once you are polling over 40% you will win the majority of the seats. In Scotland this means you expect to win 30 seats which remains the SNP's expectation for the number of seats it will hold at Westminster after the 7th of May. Any more seats than this is just jam on top.
The problem for Murphy's Scotch Labour is this 10% gap with the SNP polling over 40% vote share for this election has been pretty stable for months now. Most recorded swings are in favour of the SNP widening the average 'worst case' 10% polling gap not narrowing it. Thus it is tin foil hat stuff for Lord 'Joke' McConnell to call the SNP's current advantage a 'protest vote' as he did at the weekend in the Courier's bedfellow, the Sunday Post.
Today's papers are full of Murphy's claim the voters will come back to Labour at the last minute and they will not loose a seat, just as he predicted when he became Labour's stool pigeon in Scotland. The only way they can do this is if Labour are fiddling the postal vote - sadly an idea many Scots would not put past Labour's 'Scotch' Branch, gerrymandering a postal voting system more than one judge in the UK, over the last five years, has described as worthy of a 'Banana Republic'.
Other bloggers have noted the latest brain wave from Murphy which is to claim the SNP are still seeking Scottish Independence. Just over a week from polling and Jim has only just read the founding principles of the SNP.
What next? Claiming the SNP is only interested in putting Scotland's best interests first at Westminster?
Just how badly has the Unionist campaign gone wrong in Scotland if all the campaign has left as its main argument is to state the bleeding obvious about a party which has made its aims at Westminster crystal clear to the whole of the UK and its long term aim for Scotland, as something terrifying to behold?
I must be out of kilter somewhere, there is something I am not just getting, maybe it is me who should be reaching for the tin foil hat.
Currently I am talking to friends in Nepal about how I can help in the re-building programs of basic infrastructure (fresh water and sanitation) in the remote and rural areas effected by the earthquake (6.8 after shocks today in the Kathmandu Valley after heavy rain and thunder storms over night). You know, things that really matter; the mundane supply of picks, shovels, concrete, plastic piping of different bores, taps and loo porcelain - stuff which will make a real difference.
Part of this process has required me to keep Facebook open, as that is currently the best channel for communication. Sadly this involves me in seeing posts of the latest Murphyism and the unsustainable Labour claim which goes with it. I have long since filtered out any posts which are Tory or Libdem related as they have nothing left to say to Scotland, only about Scotland's drift to what they see as support for Fascism / Nazism both of which define the 'shouters' politics rather than the SNP's.
For argument's sake let us give today's over the top TNS poll an error margin of 10% and apply the worst case scenario of the state of play in Scotland indicated by the TNS survey which gives us Labour on 32% and the SNP on 44%. So even if you give Labour the best possible case and the SNP the worst possible case the SNP lead is a healthy 12% points. If you do the same on the other polls, applying the more likely statistical error of 5% either way, in favour of Labour the results comes up with a 10 to 12 % lead for the SNP. The basis of FPTP means that once you are polling over 40% you will win the majority of the seats. In Scotland this means you expect to win 30 seats which remains the SNP's expectation for the number of seats it will hold at Westminster after the 7th of May. Any more seats than this is just jam on top.
The problem for Murphy's Scotch Labour is this 10% gap with the SNP polling over 40% vote share for this election has been pretty stable for months now. Most recorded swings are in favour of the SNP widening the average 'worst case' 10% polling gap not narrowing it. Thus it is tin foil hat stuff for Lord 'Joke' McConnell to call the SNP's current advantage a 'protest vote' as he did at the weekend in the Courier's bedfellow, the Sunday Post.
Today's papers are full of Murphy's claim the voters will come back to Labour at the last minute and they will not loose a seat, just as he predicted when he became Labour's stool pigeon in Scotland. The only way they can do this is if Labour are fiddling the postal vote - sadly an idea many Scots would not put past Labour's 'Scotch' Branch, gerrymandering a postal voting system more than one judge in the UK, over the last five years, has described as worthy of a 'Banana Republic'.
Other bloggers have noted the latest brain wave from Murphy which is to claim the SNP are still seeking Scottish Independence. Just over a week from polling and Jim has only just read the founding principles of the SNP.
What next? Claiming the SNP is only interested in putting Scotland's best interests first at Westminster?
Just how badly has the Unionist campaign gone wrong in Scotland if all the campaign has left as its main argument is to state the bleeding obvious about a party which has made its aims at Westminster crystal clear to the whole of the UK and its long term aim for Scotland, as something terrifying to behold?
I must be out of kilter somewhere, there is something I am not just getting, maybe it is me who should be reaching for the tin foil hat.
No need for the tin foil hat, it is the unionists that are out of kilter.
ReplyDeleteYes. Latest poll headlines in the Grauniad and Independentnot (29th) are SNP taking all but one seat. The only thing we have to watch out for is over-expectations, both about seats to be gained and power to be wielded. But no matter what happens (almost) we are on course for a new Independence referendum in a couple of years.
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