Friday, 3 March 2017

More Mayhem? Not Really.

I will be honest with you, I did not listen to Ms May's speech for the benefit of the British Establishment media today from a two thirds empty SECC in Glasgow, masquerading as a Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party conference.

I did see the polar opposite responses to May's speech on social media. On the Yoon side ranging from "she has put the SNP in its proper place" to the increasingly crude "Sturgeon is flattened" (it was an 'f' word, maybe not flattened) while the Yes side varied from "May has cut her own throat" to variants of "May is flattened" (see "Sturgeon is flattened"). So toys have been thrown out the pram on both sides, hyperbole hyperventillated, angst aired, hatred hooted and any other similar alliterations you feel like making up for yourselves.

The reality is nothing has changed much, no matter what the media say. May has simply peddled the same core points which leaves her sounding shrill, panicked by simply saying what she has been saying for weeks; Scotland does not count and should just do what it is told to do by London. Scotland can not have different view from England because it threatens "Great Britain and the great British exit" along with all the capital gains to be accrued by Tory backers as a result of the economic fall out from Brexit.

Ms Sturgeon has made clear, again, if the UK Government is not willing to seek a solution which allows Scotland to stay in the EU, as part of its Brexit negotiations, then she will activate the Scottish Government's manifesto promise to hold a referendum so the sovereign people of Scotland can decide whether Scotland stays in the UK Parliamentary Union or in the EU, as it is increasingly clear Scotland can only remain in one or the other.

Outside of the media 'yah-boo arena' in both mainstream and social versions, nothing has changed. Neither side of this constitutional argument has struck a telling blow, no matter the fluff and flounce you will read and hear this weekend, all that is happened is the lines in the sand have been even more definitively marked.

What is surprising is the biggest guns on the UK side are firing the same anti-SNP munitions as they did in 2014 and yet the camapign is no where near starting. It is a bit like a military commander in a defensive position firing all his weapons at an attacker who is unlikely to make any attack for weeks, simply to demonstrate he is serious, while giving away all his major dispositions. It makes no real sense and suggests the UK Union's defence is already fairly thread bare if their biggest weapon is to claim the Yes side are 'racists'. A line which has been trotted out a number of times this week to ever increasing disbelief, even within elements of the British Establishment media, and ever increasing derision across Scotland.

On Thursday Ms Sturgeon came close to losing it with Scotland's political answer to Cinderella's Ugly Sisters (pc, feminist hair triggers; remember in the original fairy story the sisters are decribed as 'ugly' for their moral rather than physical demeanour) with her "Buy one, get one free" jibe as the gruesome twosome spun either the "How Now Brown Vow" re run or "The SNP has no mandate for an independence referendum" load of old rubbish.

While the main contestants circle each other in the pre-fight breifing, growling and threatening the worst, nothing can or will happen until Ms May gives notice to the EU, firing the Article 50 gun. Until then we are stuck in a period of phoney war, unsettling because we are certain this political war will go hot by the end of March 2017, unless Ms May blinks and steps back from the brink, an outcome for which you will get very long odds at the "Bookies".

So let us stay calm, not get exercised about what Ms May did or did not say today and leave the Yoons to carry on panicking and hollering, in the process wearing both themselves and their supporters down. All before the UK Government have to start fighting with both the EU and the Yes movement in Scotland simultaneously.

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