Saturday, 17 January 2015

Power Cuts are inevitable ...

Cameron's maneuvering over the leader's debate reminds me of the 'Pushmepullyou' of Dr Doolittle fame, looking in opposite directions at the same time, going nowhere very quickly. 

In the meantime the 'British Establishment' in all its forms continues to argue for the exclusion of the SNP leadership from any such leadership debate in the run up to this increasingly critical, especially in terms of the British Establishment's need for micro-control of the UK nation, election in May which has all the signs of changing the script in terms of Westminster and the future of the UK Union in its current form.

The UK opinion polls are indicating that both the 'main' parties are struggling along on their core support, a core support which itself looks less than solid. For Cameron the nightmare of UKIP looms ever larger on his horizon. The original warmth with which the idea of UKIP taking seats from Labour in the North of England was embraced has brought with it a chill of reality as the rise of support by Essex man and woman for UKIP begins to shift the balance in previously solid Tory seats in the SE.

Labour has problems where ever it looks, the SNP in Scotland, UKIP in the North of England, Plaid and the Greens in Wales and the South West of England respectively. They have lead themselves up a blind alley of self selecting, Labour member dominated 'focus groups' driving policy and assuming these 'people' are the same as the 'ordinary punter' - a delusional position, as a brief skim of the Labour List web site and its right wing, Blairite meanderings quickly reveals.

YouGov, no matter how hard it tries, can not give either Cameron or Miliband much comfort as the swings in polls are within the statistical error of the process.

The reality is that both the Tories and Labour are flat lining in the UK opinion polls while the Libdems sink ever deeper into the mire, trailing both UKIP and the Greens across England while facing a virtual wipe out in Scotland with a toss up whether they will hold their Northern Isles seat or Charles Kennedy's seat (due to his local 'popular vote').

The situation in the EU with the Euro is not helpful Westminster's Oxbridge club nor are the collapse of oil prices no matter how Osborne and Balls seek to deflect attention else where by having a whine at the SNP over 'independence and Scotland's lucky escape' while carefully avoiding the reality, the oil price collapse is now their problem as North Sea income streams to the UK Government dry up, impacting negatively on the UK trade deficit, Sterling foreign exchange earnings and current UK Government borrowing projections which now have a North Sea sized hole in them.

Last week we saw just how scared of a 'power cut' the British Establishment machine is becoming as the Tories and Labour marched through the lobby together to agree the even further destruction of health, social and welfare provision across the UK  inevitable in the £60 billion worth of cuts this bill has agreed 'need' to happen post May 2015. More and more players on both sides of the Labour / Tory divide are now talking up a UK Government of 'national unity' if the Tory and Labour Parties end up being neutered in May 2015 by having no overall majority and not wish to be at the mercy of either UKIP or the SNP.

This whole idea of a 'national unity' government is rife with problems for both of these parties. For Labour it would see the ending of Trade Union support and a massive hole in Labour's finances. The last, tattered remnants of their claim to stand with the ordinary people of England would be blown away, along with Labour's electoral future across wide tracts of England. The Tories would quickly divide and enter into a messy civil war between the centre right of the party and those further right whose sympathies lie with UKIP on the EU and immigration. With the collapse of the Tory Party's once formidable, independently minded, constituency party system through its undermining over the last decade as a result of ever more micro-control from Tory Head Office, there will not be any means of drawing an increasingly factionalised party back together.

Unless the current UK polling trends change between now and May 2015, I struggle to see how a UK government backed by either the SNP (in Labour's case) or UKIP (in the Tory's case) will not ultimately bring the current UK political system crashing around its head. The Westminster Parliament has already painted itself into a corner where the British Establishment will resent a social democrat SNP tail wagging its 'dog' nor will the same people wish to see the current cosy arrangements between Westminster and the 'City of London' being threatened by a UKIP / Right Wing Tory lead move to exit the EU, cutting off the supply of cheap labour their financial machinations and business models rely on, as it does so.

There is a growing problem for the Westminster system and it comes down to: you can not fool all of the people, all of the time.  The people have had enough of paying a high price to keep the richest 5% in the UK rich. The growth in support not only for the SNP in Scotland but for UKIP and the Greens in England is a statement of intent by the ordinary people - we have had enough and the traditional two party system has failed us, change or be changed. On the joint walk through the Westminster lobby by Labour and the Tories, to vote through more austerity, the point has been reached where we will have to force through change because we will never get the Turkey's to vote for Christmas.

For Scots that starts by voting for as many SNP MPs as is humanly possible to send south to Westminster in May 2015. It is beginning of the 'power cut' required to save our welfare, social and health services in Scotland and much more as well.


  1. '300 billion cuts'? ............steady on Peter.

    Wouldn't put it past them right enough.

  2. hmm,, funny I was just watching Oliver Twist, the old B n W one, and, as I blew out the candles, (they keep us warmer), I thought, crikey imagine if we only had candles for light n all, then I saw your article, glad to see it was a only metaphor, re power cuts...
    the film has a happy ending. If only life was like that, but wait, nice boy finds his rich family, shame about the other poor kids.