Tuesday, 20 May 2014

How many roads?

Four months to go and Better Together strategists are already resorting to the 'smear campaign', feeding their media chums with unsubstantiated stories about vicious 'cybernats' threatening poor little newby Labour MSPs and their kids or carrying on with the 'Dictator Eck' theme and the latest being there will be 'civil unrest' in Scotland on a 'Yes vote' or more bizarrely Scotland will need some sort of reconciliation commission, run by the ever more isolated and fundamentally out of touch Church of Scotland, to sooth furrowed brows after the 18th of September.

Anyone would think that the vested interests in 'Civic Scotland' and 'British Establishment Scotland' are beginning to get worried their coats of influence are on an ever greater shoogly peg. Possibly this is because they have been let in on the UK Government Poll whose figures were so good for the pro-independence camp that it was decided to make the UK Taxpayer funded £46,000 poll into a 'secret poll'. The trend they are trying to avoid mentioning is at the current rate of swing toward a Yes vote, analysis of all the opinion polls on independence going back to July 2012 is indicating a 14% lead for Yes by the 18th of September within a 95% confidence rating. The same systematic analysis predicted a 39% vote share for the SNP in 2011, the actual result was nearer a 48% vote share. If you are a Unionist sitting in some publicly funded quango or other publicly funded sinecure I suggest you too would be finding it is rapidly approaching 'squeaky bum time'.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they come to fight you, and then you win." (M.K. Gandhi)

So here we are, in the region of four months out from the referendum and already the British Establishment has tried the first two principles of Gandhi's statement and found they can not ignore Scotland nor can they laugh at Scotland any longer, so are left with fighting and fighting dirty, as their sole remaining approach to save a Union which for many Scots is already so broken it is not worth repairing.

The Scots who wished for a new federal UK Union are accepting this will never happen. The choice is only between the status quo or an independent Scotland and as they look at the depressing and baleful politics of Westminster, on a daily basis, the status quo carries less and less of an attraction. The UK Parliament no longer has the ability or commitment to bring UK Ministers to book for their outrageous claims (normal folk call this lying) to said parliament nor it appears is the parliament willing to bring to heel political appointee civil servants either. The farce which is now Ian Duncan-Smith's Welfare Reform Act and the DWP's implementation of said act being the clearest case in point. What did parliament do when the National Audit Office complained about Duncan-Smith's misuse and misconstruction of their statistical analysis? Nothing; while Duncan-Smith apologised in a bare mumble to the 'Commons', promised not to do it again and then promptly carried on where he had left off.

The Dali Lama pointed out, in his experience, the narrower the views, the more extreme and angry the person.

As you look at the constant stream of 'scapegoating' by Cameron's Government  in trying to shift the ills of their own governmental and fiscal incompetence onto the shoulders of those with little or no voice whether they be sick, disabled or unemployed; it is not hard to see how these ever narrower political views are creating an ever more extreme system of  government. The need for scapegoats and the effect of this increasing political extremism is seen in England with the rise and rise of UKIP.

The pound is at an all time low against a basket of currencies, the government is printing 'funny money' in terms of QE, the UK national debt is now twice the size compared to 2010 when the Tories took over while currently 'economic growth' is based on the rather dubious rise of 8% in London and SE house prices and the associated mortgage bubble which is accompanying it. Personal debt is still at unsustainable levels in a near stagnant UK economy with devaluing wages in real terms, while the Bank of England has stated  to rely only on mortgage driven UK economic growth is fiscally irresponsible and unstructured.

Each road you turn down in this Union leads only one outcome, an impending, economic tsunami of Wiemar or Zimbabwean proportions which can only 'prevented' by some form of UK Establishment Dictatorship 'to see us through the worst'. A solution which can only work if Scotland's foreign exchange and other earnings remain within the UK Treasury's control. In the case of a Sterling crash of these proportions an independent Scotland can pull out of Sterling and shift to the dollar or establish its own free floating, energy backed Scottish Pound / Merk denying the British Establishment, via Sterling, the Scottish energy asset to offset its collapsing economy and increasing borrowing costs against.

'Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.' says the writing on the British Establishment wall in increasingly bright and flaming letters. The Scots have put them in the balance, weighed them and found them wanting. Like the Medes and the Persians all they have left is to fall on Scotland like ravening (or should that actually be raving) wolves - it is the only road they have left themselves.

By comparison the 'Yes' campaign has one clear aim but happily agrees there are many roads down which a future independent Scotland may walk to make the Scottish peoples' needs and expectations happen, none of them wrong, all of them possible but not one of them attainable until after the Scots electorate says - 'Yes' to independence.

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