Munich Agreement 2.0

 Those who never learn from history are doomed to repeat its failings.

Donbas / Sudetenland, false flag attacks to justify military action, Western diplomats tying themselves in knots trying to avoid either giving in to bullying or all out war: 2022 or 1938?

Ironically meeting in Munich to decide what they are not going to do while pretending they are doing something.

All that is missing is the "Fat Boy" waving a bit of paper at us "Brits" as he gets off a privately run, contracted out RAF transport aircraft at Northolt air base and, with no sense of irony, talks about the maginifcent UK Armed forces and their role in supporting their European neighbours. The same Armed Forces the Tories have seriously degraded through under-funding, delays to procurement and poor choices of equipment based on cost. In 1982 the RN could put 115 armed capable hulls into action. A recent paper in the IDJ estimates the most armed capable hulls the RN can put to sea, at present is 18, this includes submarines.

The focus is all about the Ukraine, as that is the point of open conflict, who is doing what and where. Ukrainian neo-Nazi "freedom fighters" looting, raping and killing indiscriminately in raids into now Russian separist held areas of the Donbas. The indiscriminate shelling of towns and villages by the "separists" in the part of the Donbas that still sees itself as part of the Ukraine. What the world is seeing is yet another replay of Northern Ireland or the war in Bosnia, a divided people egged on by bigger international players and internal demagogues. Fighting out a problem which starts with the 1945 Yalta agreement and has never been resolved, The Cold War has never actually ended, just morphed into yet more lines in the sand which the same two main players USA and Russia draw and redraw as one or the other gains some sort of advantage while their client states rise and fall or their usefullness waxes or wains.

I have a view on what is the actual game going on. The Russians have long saught after barrier states between themsleves and the European neighbours since the Russian revolution. While the USSR dominated Eastern Europe this need was met but the inevitable happened the cost of keeping the Russian controlled barrier states became too much of a burden on the Soviet Russian State and its economy. Finland which had long held a neutral position between NATO and Russia joined NATO. Poland joins the EU and NATO, Hungary follows Poland, Russian influence in the Balkans weakens with the break up of Yugoslavia leaving them with only their traditional ally, Serbia, in the area. This was a worry to a Russian military command which still thinks in Cold War terms to defend the "Rodina". There was no real worry as a large section of the Russian border still had two buffer states in Ukraine and Belarus, that was until the Ukrainians decided their pro-Russian government had to go because the "people" looked to the EU for economic prosperity and related "freedoms".

The only major buffer state, friendly to Russia, left is Belarus. The Russians big worry is the opposition to their long standing dictator pal in Belarus is serious and the movement were very close to peacefully removing him until, with the tacit help of the Russian version of the CIA, this serious threat to Russia's border was thwarted in a crude and heavy handed way, in a signature old style "Soviet" supression of disidents and reactionaries sponsored and supported by "External Forces".

So while the world looks at the Ukraine, the reality is this is just another redrawing in the sand between the USA and Russia based on the reality Putin could use his army to crush Ukraine at any time but he will not because he is not that daft - as long as the Western States stop funding the democracy movement in Belarus and leave his pal in Belarus alone to play to Putin's Russian tune.

Belarus re-orientating to the EU and worse, NATO, is just one ex-Soviet state too many for Putin's Russia to thole.

Oh little town of Bedlam, how shrill do we hear you lie.

 As my late friend, the Reverend I M Jolly would remind us, "Life is like an ash tray, fu' o little doots".

Wise words indeed as we approach a new year where we have a Prime Minister who wouldnae ken which way is up, even if it was tattooed on abody else's foreheids.

Then we have the "Covid"; bringing death and suffering in levels not kenned lang syne forbye the plagues o' Egypt. Only kept at bay by those who hae merked their door, "Awa an bile yer heid, ye bam, we've aa hud thon booster jag.". Jist lik Moses telt thon Isrealites tae pit thon merk o Cain, back in the day, an lik Moses we're alsae plagued wi false prophet's takin fowk fae the truth o' it.

Whit numpty cam up wi the idea thit a load o top scientists aa git the gither tae poison abody aa o'er the wurld?

Thit it wis aa Bill Gates fault cos he wanted governments tae tak o'er aa oor heids wi a Microsoft app?

Whit sort aa fowk tak bleach tae self treat the Covid, kin they naw read the labels thit speirs "POISON" dinnae tak a dram, in reid letters?

I member as a bairn fowk banging on aboot "horse tablets" whin takin peels bit they wernae fae the actual vets.

Noo is a manny o God I shud be on the fire an brimstone aboot prayin tae God tae save yirsel's an the sermon shud be getting yees aa doon oan yer hunkers askin fir God tae forgee yer sins and save yer soul fae the Covid wi a Knoxian fervour, burning with Calvinist self righteousness, bit a cannae.

See aa thon pastors in the USA whit speired "hopes and prayers" wid save thir sel's and their congregations fae Covid?

Weel maybees sticks in ma craw tae tell ye this, its naw goan as well as wis maybees thocht in thir "Holy Fervour". It turns oot maist o them hae deid fae the Covid alang wi big chunks o thir congregations. Forbye, God taks tent o the scientists mair than prayers, sae maybees we aa shud an aw an jist git the jab an be happy tae feel a bitty wabbit fir a couple o days.

Noo, I ken is muckle abit mRNA an strands as the next mun which i ken tae be 'bugger aa', if ye'll pardoney moi ma Francais, yet thir ir fowk wha widdnae ken wan end o a syringe fae t'other waxing loud abit this an thit statistic thit the jab is a killer jist because aa the evidence we ken tells us thir is a mickle "risk", bit tae pit it in perspective its naw is muckle a risk is "hopes and prayers" which is the alternate, whit e'r wi ye pit it.

Its a sair fecht fir aa the doctors an nurses whit are caring fir the seek fae Covid, whit iver type, wi last ditch treatment tryin tae save lives o' fowk whas lungs are jist aboot knackered alang wi thir kidneys an hert bit whin fowk tak aboot "personal freedoms" a doot they hivnae spent a wheen o minutes in an ICU ir assisted ventilation ward watching fowk struggle tae breathe ir takin thir last breath. Maist thit ir noo seriously unweel an it death's door wi the Covid ir those wha hivnae hud the jab, fir whit iver reason.

The bottom line here is; wi "personal freedom" alsae gangs "personal responsibility", ye cannae hae wan wi oot t'other, is the guid book pit it, "loo yer neebour is yersel" an it is in thit licht this wee sermon caa's tae an end.

The Little Lies are the Dangerous Ones

I am looking at the current state of the UK Government and in 50 years of active political engagement first with the old Liberal Party, then the coalesced Liberal Democrats and, since my return to Scotland, the SNP I have never seen such levels of corruption in a UK Government than are extant now.

The economic theorists call it "Disaster Capitalism" where previous publicly owned assets and services are sold off at bargain basement prices with the "little lie" that this is the only way to protect the service or the public can buy shares in the newly privatised company at special rates, scam. Those who purchased British Gas shares have seen their value collapse as a succession of take overs and buy outs diluted their original holdings of "non voting" shares.

The reality and aim of "Disaster Capitalism" is to focus wealth and power in an ever smaller group of people, to deliberately grow the divide between the super rich and the rest of society. It is an economic theory of division, break up of cultural and societal norms, hatred and violence. One manifestation of "Disaster Capitalism" was the Trump supporters attempts to suborn Congress by "taking it over" because the guy who had made them all worse off, given even greater tax breaks to his rich pals at their expense had been democratically beaten in the presidential "race". It was a classic case of the Scottish football supporters oft heard cry of "we wis robbed" taken to the extreme because they did not like the "refs" decision, there had been no electoral scam. Their man lost fair and square and by quite a margin.

This is what the disaster capitalism being pursued by the likes of Rees-Mogg and his hedge fund pals does, the drip, drip, drip of corrosive little lies in the media to shift what should be a governmental responsibility to being some one else's fault until the great unwashed lose their orientation and start self justifying why it is right the NHS should be run by the more "effective" private sector up to the point they next want to use the NHS and, in England, can wait up to six weeks for a NHS GP appointment in many health trust areas. Of course the lack of appointments is not the government's fault it is the "lazy" GPs fault and has nothing to do with the UK Government ignoring all the warnings of the collapse of GP services across the UK as the last of the "baby boom" generations retire. The BMA GP committees best attempts at ensuring few would want to be GPs with their constant cries of being overworked and GP services near the point of collapse; not a good recruiting image to enthuse any young Doctor to take on GP training. Now throw in Brexit and the movement of EU doctors and nurses back to their own countries and you have a disaster on your hands, a disaster the private health and insurance sector are rubbing their hands in glee over.

The latest (English) Government GP contract in England has a number of penalty clauses which will make it even harder to provide traditional GP services. GPs in England are now heading down the same death by medical corporations tunnel which NHS dentistry in England was driven down in the 1990's, it is already happening with GP contracts being handed out to the likes of Virgin Healthcare to provide services because there are no GPs who want to take on the job. The big US health Insurance Corporations are already sticking their fingers into this pie via a number of UK health shell companies who have a surprising number of both Labour and Tory MPs on their boards or acting as "advisers".

There is evidence that corporate run GP services are deliberately delaying NHS appointments but are offering next day appointments for £50 a time with their "private GP services" which turn out to be the doctor you would see in six weeks on the NHS. Of course any prescription from the private GP appointment would be a private prescription; "That'll be another £25 per item, I thank you." and the returns from disaster capitalism grow ever greater with top and bottom slicing going on.

We are not talking about entrepreneurs or free marketeers for whom the shrinking market caused by Disaster Capitalism is an anathema, as are the hard borders to trade and movement of employees this extreme form imposes as part of its process of greater control by fewer people. Brexit was "done" because the current cabal at the centre of the Tory Government are pursuing disaster capitalism to enrich themselves and their close friends at the expense of the UK State and its taxpayers  and for no other reason.

The lie they sold to get Brexit done only really appealed to those who believe the old adage "an Englishman's home is his castle" and the ethnic view that "All foreigners are bad for the country and a threat to us English" except that is not actually what the current Tory Government believes as an Englishman's home is actually an acrue-able asset in their eyes to make them richer or foreclose on their mortgage when they lose their job or stagflation eats up the margin between home and homelessness. The Tory Government believe homelessness is the fault of the homeless so there will be no tears at Tory HQ or in Westminster as you lose your home.

Unfortunately, like the Trump supporters belief in the second coming of their man to be made President instead of Bidden, a large enough volume of English voters bought the narrow, ethnic, English nationalistic pish spouted by the likes of Farage and still can not face up to their failure. In the meantime the UK standard of living plummets as stagflation takes its toll on wages and living costs. Previously solid SME's go to the wall and the energy "free market" falls to bits around us as all the smaller supplier fry are destroyed.

None of this is any worry to the Tory disaster capitalists as the companies they invest in hoover up ever greater proportions of the UK energy market for themselves while the collapsed SME's are not worth the trouble. Anyway; who needs to make anything in the UK when you can get it from SE Asia cheaper.

The Cambo Oil and Gas Field will go ahead, as climate change is just another thread to disaster capitalism's potential income stream and the shareholder value of hard assets like oil and gas will remain at a premium. No matter what was decided at COP26 in Glasgow, shareholder value and return rules for the disaster capitalist. Next move will be for the big corporations to buy up fresh water licenses and turn that into a shareholder asset, as water shortages increasingly stalk the world as part and parcel of climate change. Nestle are just one big corporation who are looking into the feasibility of turning fresh water into an asset and the potential returns doing so will bring.

Bungling Boris is just the useful fool the disaster capitalist thinkers in the Tories, Rees-Mogg, Gove et al needed to hide behind to get the real job, wrecking the UK economy, done while lining their own pockets, those of their backers and Tory Grandees.

This is the UK economic cycle Scotland is currently bound in, it is not one I wish to be part of and whether Scotland can weather the economic storm being generated by Tory disaster capitalism, in the UK, until 2023 is a serious concern of mine.

The Emperor's Empty Promises

Most readers will know Hans Andersen's tale of the "Emperor's New Clothes", many will have read articles describing our current Prime Minister in exactly those terms; vain, haughty, arrogant and ignorant.

He claims to fashion himself on Churchill but his delivery is more that of Hitler - vague, vain glorious, blustering doggerel, promising the world will be ours; but only if we are good boys and girls and do what he says.

He leads a cabinet which appears incompetent, busily back stabbing, fawning over the Boris, praising his disasters as massive successes, again just like Hitler's acolytes, while ignoring the objective evidence that all Boris is managing to do is reduce the UK to a western version of Lebanon with power cuts, food shortages, fuel shortages and the rest while his hedgefund pals (and probably himself) look forward to making a killing, betting on the collapse of Sterling within the next few months.

Locally to me, the Scottish Secretary has been playing the "improve the A75" card without actually telling us if the UK Treasury will cough up the billions required to dual the road from the M74 to Stranrear. They had a photo op of Jack and his MSP minions standing by a sign on the A75 looking serious, published in all the local papers, yet there was no information about them having any discussion with Transport Scotland who are responsible for the trunk road or either of the contractors who maintain it.

The dualling as far as Auchencairn is, in engineering terms, fairly straight forward, well once they resolve the route and land disputes about where the Springholm / Crocketford by-pass will go. But from Auchenlaire on there are some serious engineering problems to be overcome from the extremely narrow section of road along the cliffs, building across the Merse at Creetown, crossing the deep peat of the Machars and the need for a tunnel or a cutting on the Glen Luce by-pass.

Those who use the road across the Machars from Newton Stewart to Glen Luce will tell you how quickly a newly laid road surface becomes corrugated on the A75 due to the deep peat under some sections of the road.

Yet Mr Jack opines that his friend Sunak in the UK Treasury will throw enough billions of pounds at the project so all these inherent problems will just disappear and like magic, a dualled A75 will just appear.

The problem for me is, we hear these sort of promises from the local Conservative MP only when he realises he and his MSPs are in a political hole, like the damage caused to his constituents' businesses, many of whom he needs to keep his seat, by Brexit - especially on the sea food and agricultural side.

The A75, yes, but nothing to say about how he will canvass his fellow ministers to meet the needs of an area with some of the lowest average wages in Scotland for whom the loss of £20 a week in Universal Credit is a big deal and the rising energy costs means cooking or heating but not both.

Mr Jack, if the UK Treasury can find the billions to dual the A 75 to save you and your MSPs electoral skin then it can afford to keep the £20 Universal Credit uplift. It is surely a worry to you that families with both parents working, in your constituency, have to be referred to the local food bank?

You have claimed £100,000 of pounds from the EU and expect the UK Taxpayer to pay you for being an MP, then extra for being a Secretary of State, pay for all your staff and your expenses. To add insult to injury the costs of the Scottish Office are deducted from Scotland's tax take to fund the Tory / Britannia propaganda your "Scotch" office churns out.

Could you not just bung the local food banks £10,000 from your own pocket to help out with the disaster your government's policies are creating in your constituency? You would hardly miss it. Then again, you would probably charge it to Scottish Office expenses so it would really be a Scottish Taxpayer donation.

The definition of a Tory in trouble: they promise much but never deliver. The A75 is not going to be dualled any time soon because the UK Treasury will say "NO" to money being invested in Scottish infrastructure with the big bogey men of independence and stagflation of Brexit lurking ever more menacingly over his shoulder and with it a run on the pound.

50 years along and we are economically back where we started in the 1970's with the threat of power cuts, strikes, labour shortages all rearing their ugly heads. By Christmas, Boris will be talking about or even implementing a three day week to deal with energy shortages and facing all the problems that drove Heath from office in 1974.

Callaghan's Government was equally incompetent and all that saved the UK from collapse was the discovery of oil and gas, in commercial quantities, off Scotland. The income from which the Thatcher Government used to rebuild London and the City in her own image. 

I need say no more.

Alba : Quo Vadis?

 So why did a party, Alba was formed in early 2020, suddenly arrive on the scene, when there were already three "list parties" up and running, just days after Mr Salmond's attempts to run down the SNP First Minister came to a clunking halt when the Holyrood investigator on "Minister's lying to Parliament" comes up with a report there had been no breach of the ministerial code by Ms Sturgeon on the issue Mr Salmond complained about while at the same time the Holyrood Committee appointed to look into the failure of the Civil Service Sexual Harassment protocol, which was found to be flawed in the original case brought against Mr Salmond, descended into a partisan falling out as the Unionist members found they could not pin anything on Ms Sturgeon either.

Anyone know how or why Alba suddenly arrived and basically told the other newly arrived list vote parties to get behind Alba and drop all their proposed candidates?

For those of us with an understanding of SNP internal politics it was no surprise to see Mr MacAskill defect nor George Kernevan's "Road to Damascus" moment. Both had been thwarted in internal SNP NEC elections and now felt side lined and put out to grass by the membership and leadership. We waited with baited breath for the other obvious defector, Joanne Cherry, to announce she was going as well, after her very public falling out with Mr Blackford and demotion. Surely Alba with its anti-woke platform would suit her better with her well known views on the transgender legislation and its threat to women of what ever sexuality. Then again maybe she looked at the Alba women activists and some of their frankly homophobic views and decided it was better to stay put for now. Maybe she thinks, like many do, Alba will be a one election wonder and not be able to offer her, as an ambitious woman, any political future. We do not know but Ms Cherry, for now, stays within the SNP camp, even if she is not a very happy camper.

Then there is the problem for us active SNP members when Alba started claiming to be there to "help" the SNP while making statements about the EU, a future referendum, currency and transgender legislation which are diametrically opposite to SNP Policy. How does this reflect "help"?

Not soon afterwards Mr Salmond had changed his mind about "helping the SNP" and stated Alba's job in the next Holyrood Parliament "would be to hold the SNP's feet to the fire". In most normal people's minds that looks a pretty aggressive statement for a party whose initial line was "helping the SNP".

We have recently had a piece by Mr Kernevan in the National which made clear that Alba's role would be to break the status quo of SNP dominance at Holyrood and remould Scottish politics, Alba are going to be the grit in the SNP oyster. This is now a long way from "helping the SNP" and is a clear statement of intent to wreck the SNP.

Then we have the continuing arguments from both sides using statistical models either to back up SNP 1&2 or to prove Alba can win seats if they can get their vote to over 6% in any list constituency. The problem for Alba is there is no way of telling if the seats they win will be at the Greens or SNP expense no matter how they try to play it. The most likely result is they will replace Greens and leave the Unionists, they claim they are after, intact. To have a real impact on Unionist list seats Alba needs to be polling at over 15% and the Greens hold at their 12 % share. Outside of the Alba activist community few everyday voters will be likely to vote for Alba, mostly because normal folk vote for the party they trust and has a decent record in Holyrood, so where will they gain the further 9% over the base 6% they already claim to have, to actually threaten Unionist list seats?

Alba also have a fundamental problem in their populist leader, Mr Salmond, who is a marmite politician in the real world, he is either liked or disliked.  Given the result of his appearance at the Holyrood committee and Ms Sturgeon's response, the SNP added more new members. The last figures I saw were 100 SNP members resigned (to move to Alba) in a one week period while 300 joined. Since 2014 my own SNP branch, in a rural area, has gone from 28 members to over 150. We have had five new members since the New Year.

Given the current levels of support for the SNP across Scotland, just where will Alba get its vote from, outside of its own circle of activists and their friends?

Then there is the small issue of where is Alba getting its funding from?

No matter where I have looked on the net, there is no open source available to see where Alba funds are coming from.

The lunatic fringe claim that Alba is backed by Russian oligarchs on behalf of Putin but I find that hard to believe as it would be political suicide for Mr Salmond. Others claim it is Tory dark money behind Alba or the UK SIS both of which, politically, are equally disastrous for Alba and very unlikely to be true. Maybe Mr Salmond and the founder of Alba are paying for campaigning and seat deposits out of their own pockets or the candidates are paying their own deposits. As long as Alba fail declare where their funding is coming from, the tin foil hat brigade will continue to have a field day.

OK, let us jump ahead and Alba get say 5 MSPs from their 6% vote share in each of the Central Belt list regions, what are their options?

Having annoyed the Greens and SNP by taking list seats from them while leaving Unionist seats intact, Alba are unlikely to be invited to any discussions on a future referendum. The two bigger pro-Independence parties will first look to isolate Alba MSPs and leave them to shout into the wind. The Holyrood committee system will also ensure Alba will be seen on few if any committees. Those with longer memories will remember how quickly the SSP were reduced to silence and doing what they were telt, in the early days of Holyrood, even with firebrand Tommy (now an Alba member) at the helm. How many MSPs does the SSP have now?

What then is left to the 5 Alba MSPs to do in this situation?

Do they sit in the members' cafeteria thinking up dark plots to bring down the SNP and Greens, stabbing waxen images of Ms Sturgeon with pins, while Scotland is on the verge of independence?

What do they do with their once a month question to the First Minister?

The options are they either carp from the sidelines with their once a month FMQ, pretty ineffectively, as their only support when doing that will be from the Unionist Parties or do they do the politically sensible thing and seek to co-operate with the Greens and SNP. This rather dampens Mr Salmond's claims of "holding SNP feet to the fire" as they will be very junior partners and on a very tight leash if they agree to work with the SNP and Greens on independence; with both parties having agreed a path, with well established plans and a referendum bill ready and waiting to go to Holyrood, post 6th May 2021.

Ultimately any future Alba policy on co-operation by any of their potential MSPs with the SNP and Greens will be decided by just how badly Mr Salmond wants his name in lights as one of the bringers of independence to Scotland and to secure his place in Scotland's political history. 

I think we all know the answer to that one, at least.

A Clippie's Tale

 As a lad at Uni I used tae wurk fir Alexander's o' Fife oot o thir Dumfy depot as a clippie.

It wis guid wurk wi lots o' overtime and wurkin' doubles, especially Seterday whin it wis double time, richt haundy fir a student looking tae build a stash afore the next term. Noo a days ye widnae be allowed tae work the hoors we did, double shifts Seterday an Sunday, hauf shifts on tap o yer ain during the week.  Thon EU maximum hoors fowk we be giein it laldie an naw mistake. The Traffic Officers noo wid hae yer clippie license aff ye afore ye cud say Carnegie Ha' if you workit thon hoors we did back then.

There wis jist a couple o late nicht buses ye didnae want tae be rosterit fir, ane tae Balingry an tither tae Blairha' whit some cried Blairsheugh. In those days thon wir still mining villages an' on a Seterday after a bevvy an a dance at the Kinema Ba' room they cud git rither frisky.

Anywies ae Seterday I hud a keek on the roster an thir it wis, ma sterter fir ten, last bus, Kinema tae Blairha'. I kenned the driver, we aften did the Perth tae Edinburgh run, sa aa say's "Whit wir up agin Fred?"

He says, " Nae bother, you willnae tak your bag as ye onlie let fowk wi Kinema tickets on the bus bit a wid tak yer ticket machine."

"Whit fir?"

"Sel defence" says he an he's naw kiddin, "If there's a bit o a fecht ye ask nicely tae git thon tae stop. If they dinnae, ye gie me three on the bell an I'll hed tae the nearest polis. If they tak a swing at ye, pit yer ticket machine afore yer pus sae they'll hit it rither than you, maistly thon 'll dae the trick. If it disnae an they come it ye agin, ye can ae hit them in the belly wie yer machine, hard mind, an pit them doon."

Seterday birls roon. There we ir ootside the Kinema Ba' room in doon toon Dunfermilne, checkin' tickets and countin fowk on as we hiv tae stay within oor PSV carriage limit. Whin the bus is foo, a cries tae the driver tae shut the doors an tak position between his cubby hole an the passengers fir baith oor saftey.

He's keeking frae time tae time up his periscope tae check the upper deck, doonstairs it maistly winching couples, mair interested in a canoodle an a bit o a grope, thin a fecht.

Wir jist commin tae Oakley whin he says, "A fecht upstairs, aff ye go, an member whit a telt ye."

So I goes up tae the top deck an thirs a couple o drunks, it the back, gien it handbags it twenty paces. Sae a askit o them tae stop, nicely. Mind these fowk are hard graftin' miners sae nicely meant a liberal use o' the word 'Feck'. Ane sets hisel' doon but the ither decides he's naw takin this fae a wee runt o a clippe, nae mair thin a boy. He's goin tae sort me oot. I see the first haymaker comin' an pit up ma ticket machine as telt an richt enuch he barks his knuckles oan ma punch. By noo the guy whit he wis fechtin wie is crying, "Set doon Geordie an stap makin an erse o' yersel."

So I asks Geordie to feckin set his erse doon as his pal wis askin but naw Geordie decides on a second swing. This ane stert'd fae behint his richt erse cheek an as it cam above oxter level I beltit him in the belly wi ma ticket machine an doon he went. I tak a few steps back in case he boaked, bit he didnae an the guy he'd been fechting wie pit him on a set.

These days thir wid be a hue an cry if a clippie walloped a passenger lik I did thon nicht. I wid be up afore the magistrates fir common assaut. Bit thon wis different, these wir hard fowk who wir nae scared tae hae a fecht tae sort oot whit wis whit. 

So the crack wis aa about wha I didnae boot him aff an mak him walk fae Oakley tae Blairha'. Weel done lad that'll sort him, he'll naw try thon on yer bus agin, Are ye naw takin him tae the Oakley polis they'll gie him a room fer the nicht.

Wan joker cries, "Aa noo ken why they ca' thir ticket machine a punch." tae much hilarity aa roon.

A gits doon tae ma driver an he gies me a keek an in thit unnerstatit wie o Fife fowk looks an says, "Aye, ye'll dae.' 

Weel thons as guid as ony nichthood ir beltie laird fae the Quin, fir me.

The Salmond Debacle

I have spent most of my life analysing processes and procedures, how things actually happen, whether disease in my early career or, after having to retire from the medical profession on ill health grounds, management and production processes in multinational companies. 

What does it look like if I apply process analysis to the Salmond Debacle?

To do that we need to make clear some definitions which over the period of the debacle have become blurred.

The Permanent Secretary is the senior civil servant in Scotland and leads the 5000 plus people working for the Scottish Government. The Permanent Secretary supports the government in developing, implementing and communicating its policies. The current Permanent Secretary of the Scottish Government is Leslie Evans. This organisation I will refer to as the "Civil Service".

The Scottish Government is the devolved government of Scotland. It was formed in 1999 as the Scottish Executive following the 1997 referendum on Scottish devolution. The Scottish Government consists of the Scottish Ministers, which is used to describe their collective legal functions. This organisation I will refer to as the "Scottish Government".

Her Majesty's Advocate, known as the Lord Advocate  is the chief legal officer of the Scottish Government and the Crown in Scotland for both civil and criminal matters that fall within the devolved powers of the Scottish Parliament. They are the chief public prosecutor for Scotland and all prosecutions on indictment are conducted by the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, nominally in the Lord Advocate's name. This is the Lord Advocate appointed by the Queen on the recommendation of the First Minister, with the agreement of the Scottish Parliament.

Above him is the UK Government appointed minister who advises the UK Cabinet on Scots Law, constitutional practice and the implications of Westminster legislation upon it, known confusingly as the Advocate General.

The timeline appear to be:

The head of the civil service in Scotland received complaints from female civil servants that they had been sexually abused by Alex Salmond. Problem there was no civil service procedure that covers allegations against non-civil servants working with civil servants. Problem solved by creating a new process and the head of the Civil Service in Scotland signing off and the First Minister approving the procedure now in place.

Problem 1: the civil service investigating officer who was going to be appointed starts taking statements from complainants before she was formally appointed which was clearly in breach of the due process. Instead of shutting down the investigation and appointing a different investigating officer they ploughed ahead.

Problem 2: news of the internal, confidential investigation is leaked to the media.

Problem 3: The Civil Service legal team say they should drop the investigation as it has not followed due process and if Salmond takes them to court they will lose. The decision is made to pursue the case in the Court of Session but by who? It could only be Leslie Evans as the First Minister is isolated from the investigation and any decision making under the procedure. The procedure is clear; the current First Minister can not be involved in any decision nor is informed at any point during the investigation.

Alex Salmond's legal team seeks to negotiate an out of court settlement but are rebuffed, the court case goes ahead, the Scottish Government on the Civil Service's behalf concedes the case at the pre-trial hearing and ends up paying out £100,000 in costs.

As far as the information in the public domain is concerned at some point prior to the Court case Salmond and Sturgeon met to discuss the situation, what was actually said at the meeting is in the realms of "she said, an I said, an she said Naw a didnae ..." and depends on which side of the fence you sit.

The key questions about the criminal case procedure are: 

1. After the failed Court of Session hearing compromised any future case against Mr Salmond, why was the police investigation not halted?  
2. Who then decided there was adequate evidence to pursue a prosecution? 
3. There is only one person who could have taken that decision, the Lord Advocate, in a case involving a senior politician
4. Why did he?  Given the investigation was already seriously compromised by leaks in the media and on social networks naming the "victims" and suggesting they were not being as straight as they claimed and had ulterior motives.
   

So the Sheriff Court Case went ahead with a female judge and a predominantly female jury, who after hearing all the evidence found Mr Salmond not guilty and innocent of all charges against him.

At no time during this process is the Scottish Government directly involved in any of the decision making as it was either a Civil Service decision or the Lord Advocate's independent decision to pursue the criminal case on a purely legal basis. The Scottish Government will have been informed of the process going on but had no power to intervene.

Meanwhile in the corridors in Holyrood and SNP HQ the gossips are at work filling in all the empty spaces I have highlighted, filling them with conjecture, political plotting, its known Mr Morrell hates Salmond so he must be the instigator, corridor gossip becomes media gossip, e.mails backing up the latest intrigue are leaked, confidential material pertinent to the case against Mr Salmond is leaked. The gossip pot is stirred and heated to the point it boils over, as more and more conjecture is thrown on the fire. He said / she said ....

Folk with an axe to grind about the delay to an independence referendum take up Salmond's case pointing fingers at SNP high heid yins as the culprits who tried to do down their man, the only man that can bring independence in their eyes, as the SNP are too feart, too fat and happy with the status quo, naw interested in independence anytime soon.

The question no one is asking is:  Just who can gain from all this froth and furore?

It certainly is not the SNP, the Scottish independence movement at large, the push for a referendum in Autumn 2021 or even Mr Salmond, who is now being seen as part of the problem by many both inside and outside the SNP.

For me the "Holyrood inquiry" is looking in all the wrong places if they actually want an answer, too wrapped up in the gossip and the "he said /she said and when" mire. Asking all the wrong questions for all the wrong reasons. Conflating civil service / Lord Advocate decision making with the Scottish Government being kept informed.

There are only two players who know what actually happened, when and why, Leslie Evans (as Head of the Civil Service in Scotland) and the Lord Advocate, James Wolfe QC.

A Crab's Tale

 So there me and my mate, Paul, were scavenging along the bottom of Loch Fyne, as per, when we espied a nice bit of rotten mackerel sitting doing not much. So after a bit of a kerfuffle with some dumped fishing gear we tuck in heartily. We are having a post postprandial nap when, with out a bye your leave, we are heading towards the surface at a rate of knots.

This human then kindly releases us from the fishing gear, measures us up for a new suit and decides Paul mustn't need one and lobs him back, while for some reason he puts rubber bands on my claws and plonks me in a bin with lots of strangers. Needless to say we are all giving each other weird looks and as usual some nutter is waving her claws about claiming its the end of the world and we are all doomed to the great cooking pot in the sky. My old Gran used to go on about that as well until, one day, she just disappeared. The tone of the place dropped when a lobster dropped in beside us, I mean you can't trust those over grown shrimps, can you? They makes my exoskeleton shiver, they does.

Must have been about half a tide later, usually when Paul and me are loitering around Ottier Ferry looking for the girls, that we get another shift into a bigger bin which, at least, has some sea in it. It gets a bit crowded after a while but at least that lobster's gone. Some lads have decided to start an escape committee as they are starting to think the nutter crab is right, for once, so pile one on top of the other. Just when they are about to succeed some one in the bottom layer has to scratch his backside, as per, and down they all fall.

Then a human puts a lid on us and there is a bit of shoogling and banging and we're on the move again, some of the lads get land sick, not I good sign thinks I. Another couple of tides and we stop. Some human opens the top and we are all hoping for some nosh but zip, nada and to be honest we could do with a tidal run as, not to put to fine a point, on it the water is now honking. I mean all those lads and lasses cramped up in a small space, what would you expect.

We can hear human's shouting angrily at each other but as I don't savvy human its is all haddock to me.

Another tide or two and the water in the bin is now truly reeking, crabs are struggling to get their breath, some are saying the cooking pot in the sky would be better than this, others have just given up. We could have had a good snack on those, the rest of us, but no chance with these bleeding bands on our claws.

Eventually the humans dump the dead, the dying and the living in this big pit, I have a quick look round but there is no sea I can sense anywhere near.

I am just wiggling free to make a run for it when wham, a load of rotting Langoustines land on my head and, well, that was me kippered.

The one human phrase that stuck in my mind as I died was "F in Brexit" or something like that, which they were all shouting.

Brexit; The reality

 A guid new year tae ane an aa and we surely live in interesting times!

I have been struck how all the gammons and yoons on line and in the UK media are still trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Their cries of taking sovereignty back seek to hide all the things they did not think of in their rush to get out of the EU to save the City of London's status as a world centre for tax avoidance and money laundering.

One of the things no one seemed to notice is leaving the EU removes us from the European Postal Union. As most of us rarely post things you are well within your rights to say, "So?".

If you are running a business that relies on sending your goods to customers in Europe you could previously negotiate a bulk rate at around £13.50 a kg from the Post Office. As of the 1st January, with the UK now outside the EU Postal Union you are looking at £30 per kg to cover all the additional costs incurred by the Post Office. That is a fair dent in the gross profit margin your company or small business is taking and a major impairment on cash flow. This could well be a hit a small business can not take or company accountants will not be willing to take. In effect a loss of their export market to the EU countries.

I am used to flying into Europe and simply walking out to a taxi or train to take me where I am going. The reality is I now face visa delays at passport control as a "non EU Citizen". I will be delayed to ensure I have health insurance for my stay or a "green card" if I am going to hire a car, I may have to demonstrate I have enough capital to cover my expected stay and an address at which I am staying; all fairly normal requirements for an entry visa in most countries. When I travel to Japan or Nepal this takes a minimum of 15 minutes even before you get anywhere near passport control who will shift you to the back of the queue if there is the slightest error in the visa application.

As a business man, instead of being able to plan my visit to be at a meeting in time, I now have to think about traveling a day before at additional cost to my company. No more red eye flight from Edinburgh to Schipol for a meeting in Amsterdam at 1100 and back by teatime the same day.

I have relations in Northern Ireland but as yet I have no solid information of what are the requirements in terms of passport control. Do I apply for an EU visa and ensure I have a green card so I can take my grandson to Dublin Zoo about an hour or so from where they stay in Northern Ireland. Will Stena or P&O stop sailings to Northern Ireland from Loch Ryan as traffic shifts to Roselaire / Cherbourg - HGV's are the route's bed and butter.

Even though many folk in D&G whine about the state of the A75 and the need to dual it from Stranrear to Gretna, the drop off in traffic could make this moot and, with it, the knock effect to all the small businesses that, one way or another, service the HGV's traversing D&G from Gretna to Stranrear.

I wonder how haulage firms, like Coultards, in D&G will look on rigs being stuck for 24 hours on the old Castle Kennedy airfield for custom's checks and clearance, there is a serious cost to them of a rig sitting still, not earning, or for a contract driver not doing the "miles" they rely on to be paid.

All this even before considering the loss of markets in France and Spain for live shellfish and fresh fish from Scottish producers. We know what a delay either for the Euro Tunnel or at Dover cost for these exporters, the loss of around £5 million of product due to delays, just before Christmas 2020. As for the potential purchasers of live shellfish, in France and Spain, will they now find more reliable supplies as the Dover delay will have cost them lost income and loss of confidence in the ability of Scottish producers to supply these goods in prime condition.

No matter where I look, Brexit is a major disaster for SME's who have been supplying goods to the EU. There is no sector which will not be badly hit by increased costs and potential custom delays.

I could write another 1,000 words on the impact on health and care services through the loss of EU personnel under the not so pretty, Priti Patel"s immigration laws. Immigration Laws which would have not let her parents into the UK as Ugandan Asian refugees.

Usually I seek at least a bit of sardonic humour to leaven this dry bread but not today. Today I look at an impending wasteland of destroyed SME's across Scotland via a deal we did not vote for, agree to or wanted.

The Lie goes twice around the world before Truth gets its boots on

 Early this week I posted a considered piece, I thought, on Covid.

The blog pointed out the risks from contracting Covid, the long term health complications of Covid, sought to undo the unscientific garbage being posted by anti-vaccers about the development of the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines and in general point out the whole process was not part of Bill Gate's plans to take over the world and force us all to use Windows 10.

Thankfully, most folk were grateful for the information as part of helping them make an informed choice. A medical researcher kindly explained how both of the vaccines work, the the risk of any adverse reaction to the Pfizer vaccine and showed the maths (the risk is around 0.00073% of an adverse reaction vs the risk of dying from Covid which is 7% according to current WHO figures).

The anti-vaccers were, in the majority, the only ones who posted.

Take "Jo" who asked how can the vaccine have been developed this fast, according to his History of Vaccines the fastest development was of a new Mumps vaccine in 1967 and that took 4 years.

Dear Jo:

In 1967 the only way to work out the shape and form of a protein molecule was radio crystalography, the same technique which confirmed the double helix of DNA, and took a skilled user two days to turn around an 60% probability answer. Computers available to medical research in 1967 filled whole basements of research departments and had the computing power of a "Fitbit" watch. There have been a number of improvements over the last 60 years in the identification of protein structures and computing capacity. On top of this things like scientific advancement have been going on which means our understanding of cell biology and chemistry has moved along a bit as has the understanding of virus and our body's response to them.

In the 1960's the only way to grow virus was inside fertilized hens eggs kept in incubators, now a days you do not need the virus once you know its structure, then you can test out potential vaccine structures in a computer simulation which mimics the effect on human cell biology and the virus, all before you even begin animal testing and human clinical trials. Thus years of old style and time consuming 60's style research is not required.

Unsurprisingly "Jo" was not impressed and asked how could I prove it was not some Big Pharma scam funded by folk like Bill Gates who had poisoned 1000's of children in Africa with "his" polio vaccine.

Dear Jo; 

The polio scandal was in India not Africa. It was caused by unscrupulous Indian drug middle men taking a skim and purchasing "polio vaccine" from unregistered and unlicensed producers while packaging the vaccine in correctly printed packaging. Yes Bill Gates has given millions of dollars to the WHO / Rotary International Polio Plus campaign which seeks to send polio the same way as smallpox, ending it as a scourge in developing and developed nations (Spain has only recently been declared polio free by the WHO) 

The actual Polio Plus program is run by Rotary International in each country, under WHO supervision and has nothing to do with Mr Gates. Mr Gates merely helps fund it. The majority of the funding for the program has come from Rotary International's own volunteer members worldwide and whose lobbying of "Big Pharma" reduced the costs per dose considerably.

Next up; Jo claimed I was seeking to bully them into taking the Covid vaccine and had not answered their questions.

Dear Jo,

You just made that up, I have never said anyone has to take the Covid vaccine and I believe I have answered your questions as fully and as accurately as I can, if that is bullying then I am guilty. It will be peer pressure rather than compulsion on which you will base your own decision.

Maybe you just do not like the answers I have given you?

My personal problem with the anti-vaccer / conspiracy theory of vaccine is simple. I can remember when mass public health vaccinations were in their infancy. Primary school friends suddenly disappeared, some did not return (TB) while others did wearing calipers due to polio or unable to play because of "weak lungs" from Scarlet fever. In my own life time I have seen diseases that were killers and disablers of young people become mild and inconsequential "childhood diseases". Imagine the uproar if an 18 month baby died of chicken pox or a three year old was left permanently deaf due to measles in the 21st Century?

In the mid 1980's when anti-vaccer scare stories first started doing the rounds of internet chat rooms a sizable number of Mums in big cities like London and Manchester decided not to have the Pertussis vaccination to prevent Scarlet fever given to their children. Within 12 months young children were dying from Scarlet fever in numbers not seen since the late 1950's with many more left to carry lung damage for the rest of their lives. There has been no reduction in uptake of the pertussis vaccine since.

The doctor whose 'study' led to the scare was subsequently found to have been highly selective in the data he used, independent research could not replicate his claims and findings, The Lancet made a fulsome apology for printing the paper without proper peer review and eventually the General Medical Council removed him from the National Register of Doctors, not because of the paper but because he was a danger to patients and the public as he would not admit, in spite of all the evidence, he had rigged the results. Sadly this gave the UK anti-vaccers their first "martyr" while they ignored all the children his "study" had killed or damaged.

As a coda, may I point out, in the UK, by law and legislation, all drugs and vaccines are deemed poisons (yes, even aspirin) which is why they must be prescribed or authorised by professional practitioners trained in their use such as Pharmacists, Doctors, Dentists and prescribing Nurses. It is a duty of care the healthcare world in the UK takes seriously, based on the best scientific information we have and after consideration of the risks versus the benefits of any drug or vaccine.

The Significance of Ideas

 Last night I had a flash back nightmare, it was bad enough to set my dog barking at 4 am and brought me awake with smells, sounds, tastes and on the sharp edge between cowardice and competence; along which folk stagger in combat situations. It is not the sort of nightmare you wake and can go straight back to sleep. It is the sort of nightmare that is far too real in your own experience to do that. It is the nightmare state where you almost strangle your wife because you can't see her as such. This sort of nightmare requires time to recover your senses, it needs a book.

Last night was not the time to delve further into the venal failings of the papacy nor was it fit to chew through an Iain M Banks Sci-Fi so I went to the shelf and selected an auld threadbare pal o mine; "Twelve Modern Scottish Poets". In itself it is a throw back as all the poets in it are noo deid and few fowk would consider poets writing between 1920 and 1960 as "modern", yet that is hoo this particular tumshie tummles.

So I sat and reread, for the umpteenth time, Hugh MacDairmid's "In sic transit Scotia" a poem where he rages against "shortbread, tartan and bagpipe" Scotch over the world. His particular ire is for those Scotch in select Burns Clubs who pontificate about Burns without any understanding of what he is actually saying:

"Mair nonsense has been uttered in his name, Than in ony barrin liberty an Christ"

 "Rabbie wads't thou wert here - the warld hath need, And Scotland mair sae, o the likes o thee,"

 MacDairmid is the man in the corner of the pub, pipe in his moo, sat in a fug o smoke an whiskey fumes, chuntering tae hisel aboot how Scots need tae ca lug tae whit he's speirin as aa body else is wrang. A werse curmudgeon wha's ae wies up fir a fecht.

 Take his view of England in "My quarrel with England":

"For I stand still for forces which, were subjugated to mak way, For England's poo'er, and tae enrich The kinds o' English and o Scots, the least congenial tae ma thochts"

There are many today in Scotland who have come to agree with McDairmid in this, a poem written just short of a hundred years ago.

Edwin Muir, a contemporary of MacDairmid, but from Orkney; is more open of the world around him and memories of plough horses:

"Their conquering hooves which trod the stubble down, Were ritual that turned the field to brown"

 There is not the anger or bitterness of Edinburgh's famous flytin man, even when Muir turns to the subject of Scotland he reflects the pass Scotland had become, more in sadness than anything else in "Scotland 1941":

"And spiritual defeat wrapped warm in riches, no pride but pride of self."

 From the Western Isles, Lewis in particular, came Ian Crichton Smith. A native gaelic speaker to whom Scottis was a second language and English a foreign one in "Culloden and after" he makes the point of the suppression of his native language and culture:

 "And how much later, bards from Tiree and Mull, would write of exile in the hard town, where mills belched English, anger of new school:"

 Again there is not the anger of MacDairmid, in fact there is a hint the Gaeltacht have given in and failed to protect their voice from the abuse offered it by the imperialism of English culture and language:

"The silly cows were heard mooing their sorrow and their Gaelic loss."

 The underlying drive in all the poems is one based on the belief that Scots do not have the courage to stand up for themselves against all the known abuses of the British State in its suppression and control of Scottish culture, the attempt to kill off its defined languages and its support of those Scots who "Up; and play the game". They each, in their own way, attack what we now call the "Scottish cringe", the concession of British Imperialism being superior to Scotland's native culture, abilities and place in the world.

Here we now sit in 2020, still facing the Scottish cringe in all its manifestations, opposed by a British Imperial State, still ever more oppressive, run out of control and yet, the sunny uplands of independence are ever nearer as there is less of the cringe about Scotland, more of the assertion that to be Scottish is a "guid thing" no matter from where you hail or your colour, religion, culture or creed. 

Maybe all we had to do was remember we are truly are, "Aa Jock Tamson's bairns" anent our family squabbles and stramashes.

On the matter of us being "Aa Jock Tamson's bairns" I will leave the last word to Edwin Morgan, from "King Billie":

"Deplore what is to be deplored, and then find out the rest."
 

 

Naked Power

 I am reading John Julius Norwich's study of the Popes from the start to the present day. I had hoped to find some redeeming features in this history, some glint that the purpose of a religious community actually carried out the teachings, the self same community which had selected the "best fit" versions in the course of numerous 4th and 5th Century Conclaves as they bent their belief to fit with the Roman Empires wishes.

Sadly at every turn, right from the start, it appears the Christian religion was bent to seeking temporal power. Even after it split in its first schism into the Western Empire (Roman) church and the Eastern Empire (Orthodox) church over the nature of "God the Son" the reality was one of seeking influence over the two Emperors to enable them to wield power.

As the western empire waned so did the church until one Pope in around the 10th century decided to re-invent the Western Empire as the "Holy Roman Empire" unified under Charlemagne which held on in ever decreasing parts until the end of the First World War and the collapse of the Hapsburg, Austro-Hungarian Empire.

On page after page the story is of Popes seeking to exercise political influence over all of Europe, especially Italy, while procuring and spending millions of pounds as they did so. Routinely by selling Papal offices to the highest bidder or offering Papal indulgences from sin and purgatory to those with cash to spend. On top was the levy paid by each Bishopric to the Vatican and other money wells such as the Papal states and the Inquisition.

By the Renaissance the Popes were splurging vast amounts on "new art", the building of St Peters, the remodeling of Rome but little was done for the ordinary people of Rome until the stink and risk of plague and malaria was such the current Pope decided to do something and began reviving old Roman Aqueducts and improving the sewerage system, not because the people needed it but because Papal envoys to the Vatican complained and would not come to Rome from May until October due to the risks. Many Popes were driven out of Rome over the same period for the same reasons.

Fast forward from the end of the 16th Century until now:

What we see in the UK Government is one which seeks power for its own ends and is happy to use corrupt practices, indulgences, to give their friends UK Government contracts on the sly, no matter their competence or ability to deliver the services required. The UK Government "Test and Trace" contract is an eye opener where the "Excel" database could not cope with the number of tests it was required to and could not extract the information Public Health Officials needed to control the disease.

For self glorification projects look no further than the billions being spent on HS2 to reduce travel time to Birmingham by 10 minutes and to Manchester by 20 minutes. Who actually benefits? Certainly not the people along the route who will have to travel to use HS2 at its "node"points, who are seeing tracts of ancient woodlands ripped up and local beauty spots put under concrete.

Yet, just like the people of Rome in the 15th and 16th century, most of the UK population's basic needs are ignored and in one of the world's supposed top economies children go hungry and adults become homeless with no cognition by the UK Government of their role in all of this.

The Roman Church had its big shake up with the reformation, one which nearly destroyed it and forced it to look at what it and the Papacy stood for, in a period during the late 16th and early 17th century it was saved by its firm footings in Spain and Italy as even the Holy Roman Emperor saw the need to do a deal with the Lutheran Reformists in what is now Germany rather than the costly war of suppression his Spanish cousin was waging in the Netherlands and his equally costly attempts to remove Elizabeth the First of England.

Today the reality is there is no drive for the true reformation of the UK Parliament. Neither of the two right of centre main parties see it to be in their benefit, there is no popular pressure from the English electorate to bring change to the current set up. 

Once again it will be up to Scotland to move forward on its own and reform its country as an independent nation state which understands the EU's flaws but sees greater benefit for its people in being a part of the EU, a view supported by two thirds of Scots who voted in the Brexit referendum. An important point the anti-EU independistas should bare in mind.

Onwards to the next Scottish civil reformation and a chance to break free from the chains of a UK Parliament as equally pernicious and venal as the Papacy of the 15th and 16th Centuries.

Like an ashtray, full of little doubts.

Half way through my 7th decade and I was thinking just what have I learned about life and folk in general?

Dillon, my dog, and I pondered this long and hard during today's walk, philosophied, dissected and bemused ourselves with argument and counter argument and were left with, well; that the basic state of our own and our  fellow human's is an existence as sheeple.

Look around you at any group you are in. It is most likely the herd you associate in, your fellow sheeple have similar views, politics, social concerns and the like. There are divergences within the herd but rarely so big the herd breaks apart. Occasionally sheeple in your herd will go off down a scary path to the rest of the herd and more often return to safety. A very small number will never return. This does not worry the sheeple in the rest of the herd because the loss will be justified in a form of words which basically comes down to. "We warned them it was dangerous".

The form of government the herd of sheeple select or have imposed on them is akin to the sheep farmer. A good sheep farmer knows the provision of adequate pasture, shelter and water is what their sheep need and expect  Any sheep farmer will tell you their biggest worry is your average sheep's desire to kill itself in the most bizarre way it can and its uncanny ability to achieve its death wish.

Is that true of sheeple?

Sadly, yes, as they are happy to have a warm roof over their head, access to adequate food and be healthy. They do not mind being shifted around by the Government's policies put in place by the equivalent of the political sheep dogs (MPS /MSPs), just as long as their core needs and expectations are met. An occasional ewe or ram will kick against the sheep dogs but never enough to worry our sheeple farmer. By and large the sheeple keep their heads down grazing in what they like to believe is safety brought about by the farmer.

In a nutshell this is how power is wielded in human society no matter what race, colour or religious belief or political bent of sheeple you are.

It is this normal existence as sheeple which means a bad farmer (current UK Government) can trampled over our needs and expectations before we realise what has happened. The reality is the majority of sheeple look around at the new barbed wire fence penning them into an ever smaller area and put their heads down and go back to grazing, after all; what can they do?

Then the bad farmer shears the sheeple as close to the bone as they can, no matter whether the sheeple can keep warm, fed and healthy or not. The rest of the sheeple say, "Thank goodness it is not us"; get their heads down and carry on grazing.

The bad farmer, having weakened the over sheared sheeple with poor grazing, lack of shelter and veterinary care, then argues they are only fit for the knacker's yard and should be put down as they are not fit for anything else. Yet still the rest of the sheeple keep their heads down in case they are next; which inevitably they will be.

By now, I trust you understand what I am trying to say.

Most sheeple prefer a good farmer to a bad farmer which is why support for Scottish independence is growing, even among sheeple herds who would have sworn red and blue in the face that any UK Shepherd was the best for the flock rather than some untried Scots local but six years ago.

My doubts not so little and can be summarised as just who can gain from the continuing "SNP bad" out pourings from supporters of Mr Salmond and independence.

It is not Mr Salmond, I would aver, because those who believed there is not smoke without fire over his admitted misoginistic tantrums with female staff will not be leaving their herd in a hurry. We can add to that, the reality Mr Salmond is not popular among a majority of female voters in Scotland for some unperceived but heart felt reason. The attempts by his supporters to do Ms Sturgeon, down only hardens this particular stance. He may well be right in his consideration he was done down, for political reasons, with the claims of female sexual abuse, of which he has been cleared and is innocent of in the eyes of the law, but not necessarily the court of public opinion.

Who are the main pushers of the "Get rid of Sturgeon" campaign?

The name that is attached routinely to the "Sturgeon must go" campaign, as go to spokesperson, is that of Kenny MacAskill MP, ex- SNP justice minister under Salmond. Mr MacAskill has had his run ins with the SNP Women's Group over a number of potentially misogynist issues over the years. I can not see what he has to gain, as he is yesterday's man in many SNP members minds, unless he is hoping a return of Mr Salmond as SNP leader brings him back into the main game of SNP politics and power rather than some one out on the edge of the tent.

Otherwise the only political power to gain from the current SNP skyeting over the Salmond Affair is the very one Scots increasingly wish to be rid of, the UK.

Meanwhile the sheeple keep their heads down, hope the next dry cough they have will not be the end of them and there will be enough feed to see them through the post Brexit winter.

In all the current "She said / He said" furore within the SNP and Yes cliques over this failed attempt by inept members within the SNP HQ, NEC and Scottish Civil Service to politically skewer Mr Salmond, we need to remember:
 

This is not as important to the sheeple than the perception of whether it is a good or a bad farmer tending their flock.

Siskipa - Little Steps

Are you frustrated Ms Sturgeon has not yet told Bawjaws where to park his UK bus?

Angry at the apparent complacency at SNP HQ as we hurtle towards an ever increasing fascist government at Westminster?

Tearing your hair out, in Peter Bell's case it is almost all gone, at the inaction over an independence referendum as we hurtle towards the Brexit cliff edge?

Find Micheal Russell's claim the SNP will fight to save devolution in the courts after rejecting the Internal Market Bill; a bit of a wet blanket?

Aye?

Well maybees what I am about to say is not going to help your rising "angst, sturm und tonder" in the slightest, not that I have not had all the above, running through my brain since the Brexit Bill made it through Westminster.

It was fascinating the Scottish Reserve Bank which comes to life on the 1st of January 2021, has released drafts of an independent Scotland's currency this week. So when folk ask the daft Unionist question of "What Currency will Scotland use?" we can show them the nice pictures of an independent Scotland's currency. It seems we are going back to the pre 1707 unit, then in common use, the Pound Scots. Me, I'd have preferred Merks and Groats ... but what the hell, eh?

This week I received my electoral roll update and noted that you can register to vote if you permanently live in Scotland, not just have a holiday home here .... Sorry House of Windsor that means you and a lot of your rich pals will not get a vote but my Polish friends across the road will.

If you look under the surface of the the obvious strife over Brexit and lack of SNP action you find a lot of the i's and t's left undotted and uncrossed prior to the 2014 independence referendum have now been dotted and crossed.

Scotland now has in place either the actual or nascent bodies, the limited control of welfare is an example of a 'nascent body", we require as an independent nation to flourish from day one. Something we did not have before. The EU has more empathy with Scotland's position of being dragged out the EU against our will than it did in 2014, with statements like "Scotland will be assured of quick entry into the EU Customs Union and full accession to the EU will be quickly implemented" or Donald Tusk's "The EU looks forward to an independent Scotland being a full and active member."

Setting this all this "stuff"of Government up and changing international opinion takes time and we are now on the cusp of deciding whether expediency now needs to take over from effectiveness or will that remain a case of putting the cart before the horse, for now.

So would part of me cry out for UDI tomorrow?

Most certainly but the other part of me says all the hard work is nearly done, Westminster's intransigence and ignorance is shifting the load for us both at home and abroad, the weight of popular opinion is rolling our way, we are not quite there yet but; "it's coming still for aa that."

In 2012 support for independence was at 23% by 2014 we had shifted that to 45%, over the 40% tipping point where the idea becomes a normal aspiration, not just one for extremists or dreamers. In 2020, with little or no active campaigning, we have seen that support rise to 54% with over 63% of Scots voters believing that Scotland will be independent within five years, no matter their political persuasion. A recent survey of CBI members revealed only 20% had concerns about their business futures in an independent Scotland.

These are all key "little steps" which we need to be in place before we take the one big step to an independent nation, no matter how frustrating it is for us of the claidheamh mór, targe and dirk of the Highland charge ilk; hard though it is for us to do, we maybe need to keep them all hidden in the thatch of our tigh na dubh just a little longer before "Now's the time and now's the hour".

Pink Feet

Rose hip red, leaves fall,

Days get smaller.

No more do swallows

Skim the estuary edge.
In flood tide's margin

A heron stalks still water;

While burst of silvered surface
Marks bass frying.

Above, the first skein of Pink Feet

Pass by and cry; Autumn! Autumn!

An Independent Scottish Defence Force

 There has been increasing talk, recently, about what a Scottish Defence Force for an independent Scotland should look like, I thought about this over eight years ago (2012) and on re-reading the post I think it is still relevant, so I give you my thoughts from 2012:

Scotland’s sovereign people do not want Trident nor are they too keen about Afghanistan or Iraq type adventures so in an independent Scotland just what would our defence force look like?

The prime question is what will an Independent Scotland need to be defended against?

To take the view – nothing – is naive. Scotland has a lot of resources that others would wish to hold as their own and would be easily economically disadvantaged by small scale attacks let alone overwhelming force.

To trigger development of this debate I am going to outline what I see as the primary threats to Scotland’s sovereignty, economy and indicate the sort of defence requirement I suggest we need -ignoring any international commitments such as NATO or the UN. The obvious course of action is to look north to Norway and Iceland and look at where their priorities lie and the answer is – their maritime interest.

Many of Scotland’s current and future economic resources are or have a major maritime element – oil and gas, fisheries, renewable power or HDVC power lines.

So how will an independent Scotland ensure the security of these resources and what could the Scottish Defence Force look like?

I would base a Scottish Defence Force on the Canadian Defence Force’s ‘all arms’ structure with a common uniform, common insignia, common central command, common logistics combined with the ability for the serving personnel, with the compatible skills, to mix across the three elements of maritime, air and land - if they wish.

The Maritime section would, in my opinion, need to be the largest element because policing of our Scottish Seas requires the presence of ships in the water. Ships are high cost defence units, if you go for deep ocean capability, but I would argue for Scotland’s needs the ships do not have to have deep ocean capability. 

 

I would foresee a maritime section made up mainly of ships like the current Jura ‘fishery / oil rig protection’ class with a hanger and helicopter capability but hopefully of a more stable design. They could be kitted out with a close air defence system, such as Phalanx or its successors, which can also be used in a surface role and carry a section of ‘marines’ for boarding fishing vessels or other surface craft. These vessels could also be fitted for but not necessarily with long range anti ship or air missiles. Its ‘long range’ offensive capability would essentially be delivered by its helicopter, using state of the art air to surface weapons or anti-submarine torpedoes. 

 

Using modern integrated command systems these Jura’s, plus their helicopters and the PC3 Orions, could be combined to be a quite potent force - if that was ever necessary – even with out being fitted with anti ship missiles. More importantly they would be very effective in doing what we need them for - oil field, coastguard and fishery protection duties. The number of ships (20) is to enable seven ships to be at sea all the time with another seven on their way to or from patrol areas and assumes six in port for routine or extended maintenance. In peacetime they could be run with a crew of sixteen officers and sailors plus a section of marines. It might make sense two split these ships into two squadrons one based in Aberdeen, Dundee or Rosyth and the other at Stornoway, Machrihanish or the Clyde. The decision then is essentially do you use two traditional Naval base ports or do you invest in new port facilities that reduce the time taken to reach patrol areas. For maintenance considerations Rosyth makes a lot of sense as there is a core workforce used to working on naval craft.

The Air section would clearly need a helicopter wing in support of the maritime section which would be best served by multirole helicopters like the Merlin which can also be used in a rescue role in support of the Coast Guard, anti submarine role and troop transport. To help patrol Scotland’s seas a small number of long range multi role patrol craft would be required similar to Norway’s PC3 Orion squadron. 

The question of whether Scotland actually needs a fixed wing strike and interceptor aircraft is debateable (it is dependent on whether you see Russia re-emerging as a threat or not) but if it was decided that we need this capability to ensure a balanced force capability I would suggest the maritime version of the Lockheed JSF F35. The basic maritime variant of the F35 is superior in every way to the Typhoon, far more flexible, better stealth characteristics, cheaper to purchase and run, easily updateable plus, if it was ever deployed in conjunction with NATO, it would be compatible with the Royal Navy’s new carrier class as well as US and French Carriers.  We would need around 40 of these aircraft to enable to keep 30 in the air. If we inherit any Tornadoes they could be converted into ‘tankers’ for the F35’s. The question is do you then concentrate all the SDF aircraft on one airbase such as Lossiemouth or do you spread the deployment around: F35’s at Leuchars, PC3 Orions and Tornado tankers at Lossiemouth and helicopters at Prestwick that will be a political decision shaped as a force decision.

Then we turn to the thorny problem of land forces, why would an independent Scotland need them and how would they be structured?

 If you follow my argument so far it is clear that at least one of the four historic cadres that make up ‘The Royal Regiment of Scotland’ would need to be full time to support our needs for oil rig protection and support of the ‘Jura Class’ offshore protection vessels. Clearly one of the famous names would need to convert to a Marine / Special Forces Regiment but what of the other three?

Does Scotland really need all the bits and pieces of a standing army such as an armoured and artillery regiment, for example, as we only have one land border and the risk is negligible? 

Again it would depend to what extent an Independent Scotland wished to be involved in panoply and paraphernalia of NATO or the proposed European Standing Army. But for logistical purposes I would see each of the SDF regiments as self contained multi role, armoured style brigades on the German model. I am not proposing that we invest in Leopards or Challenger Mk2 tanks but armoured vehicles that would support any deployment of the SDF in a peace keeping role. 

 

We are talking Armoured Personnel Vehicles with a varied light weapon fit from 0.5 calibre machine guns via ‘chain guns’ to surface to air / anti tank missile systems in keeping with the concept of the land force as a defence force. It makes sense that only one of these more traditional army regiments was full time. I would see the other two run as territorial or reserve regiments with a professional core of officers and senior NCOs.

What we get as a defence force will be a function of how much an Independent Scotland would wish to spend of its GDP on this force, balanced against our politically defined needs and commitments.

As to cost, overall defence costs are usually stated as percentage of GDP and I would see an SDF with around 10,000 regulars and between 7,000 and 10,000 territorial style reserves. These sorts of numbers relate more to Eire than Norway so the lowest cost to run the SDF would be in the region of £600+ million annual cost based on Eire’s defence spending in 2009-10. Given I am also including F35’s and just over twice the number of patrol ships a more realistic figure would be in the region of £1 billion based on current defence costs of which around 60% is in pay and pensions. To run a defence force of the size of Norway’s is in the region of £5 billion for 2010/11 which has been assessed at 4.8% of the Norwegian Government’s budget (not the countries GDP) so if we assume the current pocket money given to Scotland as the basis for the future independent Scottish Government budget, defence spending on the SDF will be in the region of 1% on the same basis.

"Ke garne" or "What to do" about the stick in the Muds?

 "Ke garne" was one of the most useful expressions I learnt in Nepali it can be used to express anything from "what to do" (the literal meaning) usually accompanied by a shoulder shrug to "You are trying to pull a fast one here mate!' depending on tone and inflection.

I mused on a time line the main problem with those over 60 who can not see past the "UK's glorious Union is best for Scotland" trope is they have been brain washed by over 50 plus years of little Scotland is reliant on the generous UK, being pumped out daily on radio, television and their daily papers. As usual there were one or two oldies (like me) who rushed to defend independence voting seniors, having missed the point about the group I was actually referring to.

Imagine how it feels like to wake up one day in your mid 70's and have the thought; I been sold a lie all my life by Westminster and the British Establishment. To then have to throw away all the decades of "UK Union is good" you have read in your daily newspaper or listened to on the trusted BBC News, over that time. Basically you have to ditch all you have politically believed in all your life. The easy option is to go into denial and argue to yourself it is too late to change horses now and blank any conversations you have which nag at the realisation you have been lied to and maybe Scotland can be a prosperous, independent country. So you talk about "What currency will we use?" and "What will we do without the "Bank of England" as a lender of last resort?" To which I ask, "How has every other country which gained its independence from England managed?"

After a pause, there is always the replying, "Aah, but .."

Those with the hardest problem to deal with on the day they wake up to having been lied to all their life, are those who wrap themselves in the "Good Queen Lizzy / Union Flag" myth. A bit of a generality but I am imagining those of a "Blue Nose or Orange Order" persuasion. Imagine what an impact waking up to the realisation this has on their psyche. They are well down the anger route in the first place as their only resort. So they talk about "Krankie" or "Nippy Sweetie" and how she is personally going to kick their "Queen" out of Scotland. These folk are well past denial and are moving from anger to hatred as their precious 'Union Fleg" is under threat. They claim the SNP have given into the "Catholics / Celtic" to destroy their "heritage" and right to walk on behalf of a long dead Dutch King, who was supported by the Catholic Church against James the 7th, and lead an army of Catholics and Protestants to drive James and his French Allies out of Ireland. When this is pointed out to them as the historical reality, they rush straight past " Aah, but..." for anger and hatred.

When we are looking at those who are over sixty and "No to independence" voting, in the run up to the next referendum, these are the two groups we are actually left trying to address.

The "anger and hate" group are not worth any effort at all, in my opinion, simply because they are so far down the road of obsession against all things related to independence to the point of apoplexy.

The "denial" group are also a problem but one where there is a potential to reason with them and irritate their little doubts about the UK Union as a "good thing" in the hopes they will admit to themselves the better future is independence for Scotland. This is not an easy sell by any means, haranguing will not work, it has to be the "much soft rain wears the marble" approach. This is, in turn, time consuming and runs the risk the marble will not wear fast enough over the next year or so to make a real difference.

In the end, the actual answer to all the problems of these two groups present is "mortality" and the actuarial reality the haters will die off faster than the deniers.

The only question remaining then is, will "Mother Nature" help out fast enough?

Barr Hill Wood

The noontide warmth snickers in an aboot thon trees

Ma wee dug snuffles arount the bracken

Nay gien a jot tae scunnered flies he pits in the air

Ir thir knackered buzzin birls doon tae anither brack.

The silence fair dunts the lugs

Whilst o'er bye a wee bird gies a helf herted cheep

Tae jildy a dunnock oot the wae

Afore the dug gies a loup an has them awa'.

Anent the forrest's edge

Ae coo, moo's a lament tae bein jagget

By a clegg ir some ither beastie.

We saunter on; the dug an me.

Him aye hopefu some wee moosie I'll pop up

Saes he can shou whit a ratter he is.

Nothin daen, pal, e'en a wee moosie

Cannae thole thon heat.

The sun kenspekles the grun

The dug sticks his neb dooon aa the holes

In hopes a wee moup 'ill came bye.

Bit the Noontide sun's pit a dwam tae thon.

As we daunder the woods, aa alane.

An open letter to the Financial Times Editor.

Sir,

I read your editorial on the imminent demise of  the failed UK Parliamentary Union with a shake of my head and some bitter laughter.

Please explain the basic piece of accounting that says England subsidises Scotland?

The reason I ask is that in an average year Scotland gets back around 43% of what we put into the UK Treasury, not including the salted away “extra territorial income” from the Scottish North Sea and North Western Atlantic oil and gas fields.

For England to be “subsidising” Scotland, Scotland would need to be getting more than 100% of what we put into the UK tax pot  (+ extraterritorial income), this is clearly not the case.

Then there is the small issue of the UK Treasury’s £10 billion of borrowing on Scotland’s behalf to help out the Covid pandemic’s economic stresses of which Scotland only saw £3 billion

 

The "too wee, too poor, too small” argument is long gone; so far gone the stables have been redeveloped into a children’s farm.

There is no escape from the reality Mr Johnson’s recent “Scotch invasion” was an utter failure which saw him once more exiting through back gates from sealed off photo opportunities to avoid protests against his incompetence. Any other of the current UK ministers would fare no better, Mr Gove - a fair deal worse - while statements from the Secretary of State for Scotland are deafening in their silence

As for health and education, methinks the Tories and other Unionists need to remove the beam from their own eye before picking at the SNP splinters.

Support for London based parties in Scotland is melting like "snaw aff a dyke” to the point the Unionist politicians are more interested in fighting each other over the remaining unionist vote share than the SNP.

Yours sincerely,

A conversation with Douglas Ross, MP for Moray

Mad Jock:

Dear Mr Ross,

Can you explain why you are set on running Scotland and Scottish people down at every turn? Why do you consistently vote against Scotland's best interests for narrow political and personal gain? How stupid do you think the majority of Scots are?

Douglas Ross: I don’t.

Mad Jock:

You voted to wreck the fishing industry to get a deal with the USA, you voted to sell off the NHS in Scotland to corporate America and you voted to support killing devolution. Oh and your Brexit votes even though Scotland voted to stay in the EU ... then there is the nonsense about how Mr Johnson saved Scotland from covid or how giving Scotland only £3 billion of the £10 billion your chancellor "borrowed" on Scotland's behalf then salted off the difference to a PPE Company in Mauritius? Mr Ross you are selling Scots and Scotland down the river every time you speak in the House of Commons on behalf of Mr Johnson's increasingly oligarchic and dictatorial government.

Douglas Ross: I disagree.

Mad Jock:

What do you disagree with and on what evidence? I have listened to you bad mouthing Scotland in the House of Commons every time you run down Scottish businesses by claiming they could not exist with out the largess of the UK Government. You make claims about your government's spending which turn out to be recycled cash which was already apportioned to Scotland anyway. Then there are the Conservative fibs about broadband, NHS Scotland oh and the too poor, too wee, too stupid line about Scotland's £60 billion plus economy which puts £60 a second into the UK Treasury. Here is the truth, on independence for Scotland, Scotland will be better off in all respects, but the combination of Brexit and the loss North Sea oil and gas revenues along with other foreign currency earnings from Scotland puts England in a pretty economic pickle according to Bloomberg Analysis, the FT in fact almost any economic analysis you look at agrees the UK is a failed economy courtesy of Tory policies. 1 Euro is now at 91p it used to be 1 Euro to 75p for example.

Douglas Ross:

Criticising the Scottish Government is not the same as talking down Scotland. As a proud Scot born and living here my whole life I won’t take lectures about Scottishness from anyone.

Mad Jock:

Maybe you should take some lessons, maybe in telling the truth rather than spouting the latest line from your party's unelected, minime Dr Goebbels, Mr Cummings. You see Brexit is not just going to destroy the whitefish industry but my local scallop industry worth £7.5 million to my local economy.

Oh; and by the way, your Scottishness was never challenged, just the canting hypocrisy of a Conservative "Holy Willie".

Final thought; your job is to represent your constituents best interests at Westminster, Mr Carlaw's is to hold the Scottish Government to account at Holyrood. Maybe you should stick to your "day job".

Douglas Ross: (Silence)