Thursday, 4 April 2013

An appeal to Social Democrats asleep in England.

English Social Democrats: I would like you to throw away your unconcious scepticism about Scotland and understand that the 'Yes' Campaign needs only a further 5% swing towards it to win in September 2014 and has eighteen months of Cameron bringing gifts like today's 'speech' at Govan to do it. The SNP claim that Cameron's visit and speech today has given them the most new members in a day for quite a few weeks, 109.

'Yes' in 2014 means 2015 becomes the election to the new English Parliament and not a 'UK Parliamentary election', as to all intents and purposes the UK Parliament ceases to exist on a 'Yes' vote in September 2014, and the opening of negotiations to end the UK Political Union in October 2014. There is no role for current Scottish MP's to play in the negotiations as these negotiations will be between the two original signatories of the 1706 Union Treaty, the sovereign nations of England and Scotland and their governments.

Now you can take the usual Guardianista - slag the Scots voting independence - line or you can stop and think what this means in terms of English party manifestos in the run up to May 2015 given the step change, no Scottish MP's at Westminster, will entail.

First off, just who will be given the 'subsidy Jock' political scapegoat label, Wales, Northern Ireland or Northern England? Maybe the Tories will continue with their current attack scapegoating the poorest and most vulnerable in England but what will New Labour do, existing as they do in a policy and commitment free zone? Who will they turn and scapegoat as an essential part of Westminster politicking? Given New Labour's current track record of sitting on their hands they can hardly have a go at the Tories and attacking a Libdem party they may well need in a coalition is not a smart move.

UKIP, as an England only party with 0.3% support in Scotland, will illogically continue to call themselves UKIP simply because a lot of folk in England will be in denial about the end of the United Kingdom's political union and with it the constitutional basis for the term. If UKIP are smarter than they sometimes seem they will be working hard on policies that will attract the old school Tories - locking lots of oiks up, keeping the poor in their place, bringing back fox hunting, feeding their anti-European prejudices and in general ticking all the Telegraph reading publics' boxes, they may well leave the strident Daily Mail readers for the BNP.

The other three can not be so 'laissez faire' in their approach as they need to attract a broader base to gain their ultimate prize. Their nature is to be as little different from one another than they can get away with while claiming clear blue water between their policies. In this the Libdems probably have more scope to be strikingly different but have the image problem that in power they ended up being no different from the other two.

The right on the new post 2014 English political tatses are well catered for but there is a real gap in the centre left until you hit the Socialist Green Party who represent the other extreme in England to UKIP. Like UKIP if they play a decent 'socialist hand' they will attract votes from the readership of the Socialist Worker and old fashioned hard left Labour voters. The big hole is where a centre left, truly social democratic party should be. England does not have a 'SNP' political equivalent and so where does this vote go or, as has been happening over the last few General Elections in England, does it just sit at home in ever bigger numbers, disenfranchised, angry with the way England is going while feeling ever more powerless to do anything about it?

To this group Messers Byrne and Cruddas are out of touch morons, no one in any of the current parties in England reflects their voice. It is time they spoke out loud and clear and made themselves heard, 2015 and a new English Parliament will be their opportunity but will they take it and create a real change in English politics?

Who knows?

First, the Scots have to vote 'yes' in 2014 and only then can the real political fun in England begin.

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