Monday, 16 July 2018

48 Blue Bottles Standing on the wall

I am confused about the Tory Party's present position. According to the Torygraph; the 1922 Committee has the 48 blue bottles required to trigger a party leadership contest. Yet there seems to be major hesitation of the said 1922 Committee to announce this officially. The Tory civil war would be almost childish, given the temper tantrums of the right wingers in the party, but what ever occurs it will be a disaster for the UK as a whole and for Scotland in particular.

Theresa may hang on as a lame duck prime minister holding little control over her UK Government Ministers or party for the remains of this UK Parliamentary electoral session, until the next GE is called, demonstrating no leadership to the civil service and with a Brexit negotiating position which is despised by the right of her party and continues to be deemed inoperable and unacceptable by the EU. In reality a "no change" to the current dysfunctional, out of their depth UK Government.

The other option is for there to be a "night of the long knives" as the likes of Boris or Rees the Emperor Ming fight over the leadership of the increasingly rotten corpse which is the Tory Party; where party cohesion has gone and the likes of the small fry players like Gove, Hammond and Hunt, who have little traction with the main Tory backers (they are, after all, just new money "oiks"), are thrown to the lions.

If the latter is the case the blood letting, personal attacks and general off the record briefings against other potential leadership contenders will start when the UK Parliament rises for summer. The problem for the party overall is they have no real contender to put forward from the old "One Nation (as long as it is England)" wing of the Party. This then leaves the Tories with a choice of right wing or extremely right wing party leaders who will then cause even more trauma to the UK GDP as they push ever more extreme conditions, they claim to require from the EU negotiations, simply so they can have a "no deal" outcome and bugger off out of it, all just to save their tax free, accumulated dosh in British Virgin Islands Banks from EU fiscal strictures.

The blame shifting game has already started. For example: a Tory list MSP complains the Scottish Minister for Rural Affairs does not have a plan for Scottish Farming post Brexit. He claims it is intolerable for Scottish farmers not to know what will happen to current levels of farming subsidies until just prior to Brexit.

Think about that for a minute.

In the first place the Scottish Minister can not begin to plan until the outcome of the Brexit Bill of the Scottish Parliament at the UK Supreme Court is decided and only then if the court decides in favour of the Scottish Parliamentary bill. A bill being opposed by a Tory Government who sees this bill going forward as a danger to their increasingly sell off public assets, pro-oligarch, fascist policies they wish to enforce on the UK as a whole. The most obvious example of this sell off cheap policy is seen daily in the piece meal sell off of NHS England and the fact, the new Health Minister for England is sponsored as an MP by one of the multinational, private health companies - who he is also is on the UK board of.

If the UK Supreme Court agree to set aside the Brexit Bill of the Scottish Parliament then the reality is the Rural Affairs Minister will have no say on what happens to farming subsidies in Scotland and any subsides will be controlled by Whitehall and focused, as at present, towards Tory Land owners in England.

Proof you say?

Let us start with the £160 million of EU support grant for Scottish Farmers which never has and never will come to Scotland and according to Mr Gove has already been spent elsewhere. I wonder if this particular Tory MSP has written to either "Fluffy" or Gove to ask what happened to his list farming constituents, EU grant support money; me, I doubt it and will not be holding my breath.

I mostly disagree with Micheal Fry's 'let the market decide' economic trope but he has pointed out the Scottish Tory high heid yins still think they can turn the clock back to the 1950's in Scotland and things will be just "tickety-bhoo". To some extent this belief they are "The true Scottish Governance in waiting" explains why they are surprised and upset that their black money, slush fund has been exposed. " Well, for goodness sake, obeying the law is just for the 'oiks' and not the likes of us." remains their position. No wonder they are increasingly frightened of an independent Scotland where their ability to manipulate will be curtailed along with their land holdings, currently held outside the UK Tax system in British Virgin ghost companies and other tax dodging vehicles, being properly rated and taxed.

Clearly 'Rees the Emperor Ming' agrees with the "Lord Snooty" Scottish Grandees opinion on the applications of the Law of England and Scots Law on him and his pals is; they do not apply to him and especially EU fiscal law which would rip his portfolio of tax dodging schemes to shreds. Tough for the plebs, if his plans cause ever increasing poverty among his constituents, they are not rich so do not deserve his sympathy or concern, they are after all just "oiks", folk to be worked into the ground for his benefit. The truly frightening thing is this; he could end up as UK Prime Minister.

It is not surprising that amongst the politically aware and informed in Scotland there is a rising cry to have the referendum sooner than later. Nor is it much of a surprise the Westminster controlled media is doing everything it can to hide the increasing support for Scottish independence with topsy turvy headlines such as 48% of Scots do not want a referendum yet 47% of Scots want independence never saw much light in the aftermath of 2014, did it.

Are we seeing a gradual realisation among the owners of Scotland's "big titles", with the editorial support for the average Scots and SNP's position on Trump, that like it or not Scotland will soon be independent. The Record could just about get away with their leaders, given Scotch Labour's position on Trump but the Scotsman, the Conservatives' pal in Scotland, I find harder to swallow. Unless the Scotsman Editor is getting in some preparation and practise for an imminent take over by Alex Salmond and his backers. Over the weekend BBC News in Scotland stood isolated, trying to pursue the Tory Party line on Trump that the protesters were just embarrassing their country. In psychological terms this is called 'projection' and reflects their own embarrassment at sucking up to Trump and their attempts to hide it.

You know what happens in the bottle song, one by one the bottles crash to the ground until there are none left, that I predict is what is about to happen to the Tory party, just as soon as the 49th blue bottle takes the hint and accidentally falls or maybe she will be pushed - but watch out for all the broken glass in the inevitable fall out.


  1. Just so. There will be fallout and we have to be ready for the stuff that the UK state is preparing. It won't be nice. I don't know how people in Scotland will respond. Some will yell " the separatists brought this upon us"......especially the old, who ought to be listening to their grandchildren , but are not, because they think they know best.

  2. The problem for the 48 is that they need to be 159. Tory party rules(changed since Thatcher!) require a direct confidence vote in the leader if they are unwilling to resign. If they win, it's over. If they lose, the field is wide open and the incumbent is not permitted to stand.

    There is therefore no point in triggering a challenge unless they actually have 159 or more Tory MPs ready to dump May.

    1. It seems the Tory Party is going for the lame duck option, doesn't it.