Wednesday 31 July 2019

Simplifying the Complications

I have spent all my adult working life dealing with large amounts of often contradicting information and seeking to find out what actually is happening (better known as diagnosis).

For some reason humans appear to have a preference for over complication, over thinking and generally disappearing up their own fundamental argument. This is clear when you read letters pages of any newspaper or similar media. The problem for the readers of the letters is to make sense of what is being written within their own over complicated views and bias. Sadly so much of what is purported to be "fact" is in reality an assumption which fits with that person's experience and so becomes "fact" by being repeated; for example the Daily Mail meme that "Scots (or Scotch) hate the English". This is also true about many "facts" about Scottish Independence.

Take the claim that Scotland needs Westminster's approval to hold an advisory referendum because the Scotland Act says so. The reality is that Holyrood can run an advisory referendum on any subject it likes, even on supposed "reserved issues" as long as it is the majority opinion of MSPs, representing the considered will of the people of Scotland at Holyrood, that such an advisory referendum should be held. The new Scottish Referendum Bill passing through Holyrood will establish and fully protect this right under Scots Law.

We need a Scotland Act section 30 approval to have an advisory referendum. A section 30 order is a mechanism in the Scotland Act 1998 which can – temporarily or permanently – grant legislative authority to the Scottish Parliament in certain areas. For example if Scotland wanted to hold a binding referendum on independence, as happened in 2014 with the Independence Referendum.

Westminster can not stop the Scottish People from holding an advisory referendum on independence. They could if they had an army to stop us. Luckily the Tories have wrecked the UK Armed Forces to such an extent this will not happen and under Scots Law the UK Military would have no legitimate basis to do so. Equally, Police Scotland are beholden to the people of Scotland, the Scottish Parliament, Scots Law and not Westminster. Then there is the small problem of international opinion if Westminster tried such a move as the EU would ensure Brexit UK suffered severe repercussions in the UN for stopping a nation state from seeking its independence under UN Statute. The Russians and Chinese Governments would cynically get behind any such EU move on human rights, simply to embarrass the USA.

The smart part about the current SNP strategy is if, as is expected, independence would be voted for by the majority of the Scots who exercised their franchise in this advisory referendum, just where does that leave Boris Johnson and his Brexit Pals? The sovereign people of Scotland will have expressed their considered will on the form of government it wishes and where it directs its sovereignty to lie; in the Scottish Parliament, not at Westminster, subverting the need for a Section 30 order.

My suggestion is the SNP will ensure the Referendum Bill (Scotland) will be in law before the end of October this year and a "No Deal Brexit", leaving the way open to run an advisory referendum on independence well before the assumed September 2020 date.

So to those who continue to claim Westminster will stop us having a referendum on independence by not giving a Section 30 order I suggest you look at the facts and not Westminster's , The BBC's and Unionist media's misbegotten assumptions.

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