Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Austerity has failed, the UK is bankrupt ....

Serendipity is an interesting concept, as well as being nice to say out loud. The word 'serendipity' has about it a sense of optimism, hope, excitement; a chance discovery which intrigues and delights but not this time.

A friend in the US sent me an article on Facebook about the mini-meltdown of the Republican Party in Maine. Apparently 13 of its most active and most conservative members have resigned on mass because the Republican Party is ignoring its fund raising membership and acting unconstitutionally. The article itself is interesting as it demonstrates just how insular Republican voting conservatives are in Maine. One of their gripes was under a new FDA and USDA Agency law they can no longer sell unpasteurised milk to their 'Homies' reflecting the UK conservatives worries about the right bend of a cucumber, or what happens to straight bananas for sale under EU regulations. The headline which caught my eye was banner advert:  'The End of Britain'.

Thinking it would be about the independence debate I serendipitously clink on the link. For those who want the detail to the potential fiscal end of the City of London, the collapse of sterling and the impact that will have follow the link. 

In a nutshell the article sets out a detailed argument as why 'austerity' has done far more damage to the UK economy than any other measure in the last 100 years. It makes clear the UK Government's predilection to running up debt over the last 50 years and how UK Government failing to alter this course has the UK where it is now, running the third largest public debt in the world just behind Japan and not far from surpassing Ireland.

Austerity has not improved the situation, it has actually exponentially accelerated UK public debt while acting as a drag on sales of manufactured goods, investment, employment and growth. This appears to confirm that it is Scottish Export exchange earnings and growth which are by and large stopping investors from 'doing a runner' from sterling and for sterling to lose 40+% if Scotland shifts to fixing the £Scots against the petro-dollar on independence, can only indicate a massive collapse in the value of sterling.

The team at Money Week has a good track record on getting the forecast of the world economic weather right and are happy to take the bashing they get from more traditional economic commentary about their 'scare stories'. Even though the article turns into a bit of a sales 'puff' at the end, the hard figures in the lead part of the argument, on the UK's bankruptcy, are hard to avoid while the same arguments make a lot of sense as to why many corporates in the UK are sitting on big wads of cash which they are not willing to invest in new plant or product in England while working out and planning where to invest it the same money outside Sterling. It is clear the UK Corporations are concerned their Sterling holdings will be further devalued on a 'Yes' vote.

All this was predicted in the McCrone report. Sterling falling in value against a free floating/ petro-dollar £Scots, the Scottish economy building a rapid cash surplus, investors moving money north from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow for better returns, corporate HQ's moving north to set up in Scotland - in general McCrone forecast an emptying of Sterling's coffers and the City of London financial business without an independent Scotland within the Sterling zone of currencies, including the loss of dollar and other currency business trading to Sterling as the new £Scots took all the oil and gas, whiskey and now renewables business money exchange north. This growing financial UK disaster would also explain why hardened Scottish Tory donors are now openly saying 'Yes', they also sense which way the fiscal winds are blowing and see independenece as the best way to protect themselves from the growing sterling 'shit storm'.

If even 50% of Money Week's economic claims pan out, then the break up of the UK means financial disaster for England, the City of London and the electorate of England is teetering on the cliff edge. Is it any wonder, then, the political class at Westminster are fighting tooth and nail to ensure a 'No' vote in September 2014, they fear the run will start on the City of London and Sterling if the 19th of September delivers a 'Yes', given all their 'puff' about throwing the £Scots out of the Sterling zone.

The prediction for the UK economy within the next five years by Money Week suggests for the good of Scotland's financial health, if for no other reason, it is time to get out of the Union.

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