Monday, 27 June 2016

Plan A / Plan B .... any ideas at all, Boris, Gove, Farage?

It would be funny, if it was not so disastrous for the UK that neither camp in the Tory's "Great EU Custard Pie Fight" had created any sort of plan if the 'leave' side won. It is reminiscent of their days as students in their 'Bullingdon Club'; in that they have trashed the place and left everyone else to clear up their mess. Yet this is one 'Bullingdon Club' night of 'horse play' that a large cheque to the restaurant from one of the 'Dad's' is not going to smooth things over, this time. The shareholders of the EU Restaurant are not playing, are on the verge of banning them sine die and setting the courts on them to boot, seeking to extract every last penny they can from the affair.

Scotland has already said they had nothing to do with the vandalism and destruction left by the custard pie fight, so could we keep our membership to the EU restaurant, please. It appears the EU shareholders have agreed this is the case but because of our relationship with the 'Bullingdon Club Bullies' (no matter how sketchy it actually is) we may have to be banned at first and then automatically let back in after the court case is settled. Some of the EU Restaurant shareholders are pointing out that Scotland's 'It wisnae me!' claim has merit and we should not be kicked out in the first place simply take over the 'Bullingdon Club's' privileged EU restaurant membership. After all Scotland has some of the biggest oil and gas reserves outside the Middle East and USSR, as well as its leading edge, re-usable energy industry and the soon to be constructed HVDC link with Norway as part of the North Sea super grid, "What's not to like?", is their view.

Meanwhile the vacuous Boris and his sniveling side kick, Gove, have recovered from their monstrous weekend hangover and slowly realised what they have actually done. First there was a lot of denial about what they had said or not said, then there was the attempt to pretend it was all just a lark, a bit of a prank really and finally the realisation they were in the thick and steaming without a pitchfork. This time a cheque from the 'Bank of Daddy' was not going to save their bacon, so they did as any good bully does, blame the other side. It was all the remain side's fault there was no plan to sort out and pacify the EU Shareholders, after all Boris and his buddies Gove and Duncan-Smith were not in government, just members of the party of government, so they were not responsible (in that they may well of hit the nail firmly on the head). The other side of the Tory Great EU Custard Pie Fight said, "Nyah, Nyah, nyah - we're taking our ball home. Ya! Boo! Sucks!" in response, leaving the UK leaderless, rudderless and crashing onto the rocks of economic disaster and currency collapse. Some folk asked how long the Tory Party of government would remain in a huff with itself, only to be told October at the earliest, even then the bickering and in fighting over who was to blame, was unlikely to stop.

With Scotland seeking to sort out its membership and stay in the EU what does this mean for England and Wales having voted out. The media is full of the reality of the economic crash the vote has resulted in, the drop in the pound and the 'high value' finance jobs which are already leaving the City of London in an ever increasing volume, so instead lets think about agriculture and fisheries in England and Wales.

Both sectors are pretty reliant on EU grants and subsidies to survive, especially the hill farmers of Northern England and Wales whose incomes will collapse on the loss of EU farm subsidies. The human impact is immediate these folk will lose their livelihoods and the roof over their head when they cannot pay the rents. Many rural communities will collapse as people move out to find work in the urban conurbations. The land will lie fallow and with out controlled grazing the sheep will cause damage to environment of England and Wales' remote landscapes with ever increasing erosion. If the sheep are removed along with the people then the hills and dales will see a return of scrub grass land and, eventually, natural re-forestation, as native species re-establish. The negative impact on Lake District tourism would be sizable if the Fells returned to being covered in rough scrub forests, changing its famous sky lines which are currently managed by sheep grazing to keep them looking 'natural'.

As for the arable and dairy sector, the loss of EU grants and subsidies will send many farms into bankruptcy as their cash flow becomes impossible and their profitability drops well below operating costs. Many dairy farms are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy in the current financial situation, so it will not take much for the banks to call in their overdrafts, flooding the land market with unsaleable dairy farms, further driving down the value of farming in England and Wales.

South Coast fisheries are mainly inshore so the loss of grants may not be that big an issue, then you get to Grimsby, Plymouth and Newlyn where there are sizable numbers of off shore boats who rely on EU fishery licenses to make their living and where a 12 mile limit is not going to do much for them in terms of a sustainable income. Throw in a lot of the off shore crews are 'immigrants' from the EU, as locals will not go on the boats, as it is to messy and too much like hard work, then where are the owners in Grimsby, Plymouth and Newlyn going to get their crews and then where will they send their boats to catch sufficient fish to pay their way, as most of their current fisheries will be closed to them as a 'non EU state' and the cost of gaining EU licenses to fish EU waters will become prohibitive, even if England and Wales joins EFTA. Maybe they could cut a deal with Norway or Iceland but neither are famous for their generosity in sharing their fisheries.

Now imagine looking at all the aspects from EU inward investment on infrastructure projects from Northumberland to Cornwall, through to the Erasmus program which facilitates under and post graduate students doing courses at Universities across the EU and ask just how is Boris and Gove going to replace all that EU funding and support to the English and Welsh regions?

The only feasible way will be for the treasury of England and Wales to cut down the current high levels of investment in the Greater London area. No HS2, no third Heathrow runway, no more cross rail, no Trident replacement, no fancy F35 fighter bombers, sell off the two aircraft carriers lying idle at Rosyth, no more 'deals' with the City of London on tax breaks and other fiscal goodies. In other words 'The House of Fools' at Westminster will have to sup small beer and accept they are now a medium sized country, of limited wealth, with a weak currency, on the edge of Europe that few other countries will give a toss about. Not exactly what Boris, Gove et al sold the English and Welsh voters with their 'sun lighted fields' claims.

For those still pondering the currency issue on independence, ask yourselves why would Scotland want to share such a thread bare currency as the pound sterling is becoming and likely to remain for a long time. It makes more sense for Scotland, after independence, to sell off its sterling reserves for US dollars and have its new currency track the US dollar. Given Scotland is likely to remain an oil and gas producer for many decades to come and energy tends to be traded in US dollars this makes a lot of sense, to me.


  1. Well, quite. What were they thinking about? My main worry is that the UK government will use force to hold on to Scotland and take it down with them. We must fight that.

    1. Agreed.
      The only political leverage Westminster had in Scotland was the British Labour party and now that they are toast,their only option is threats of a physical nature.
      HM press who encouraged England to leave the EU are going to be treated with a jaundiced view by many in Scotland so will be of little value to Westminster in a disagreement with Holyrood.
      I suppose they could try to shutdown Holyrood but after the council elections next year,hard to see how they could effect that.
      A disaster of their own usual.