Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Balkans and Turkey today ... a replay of 1914?

The First World War actually started because the Hungro-Austrian Empire wanted to teach upstart new Balkan States, like Serbia, they were still boss and the assassination was a brilliant excuse. The Ottoman Empire became involved as it saw its Middle East fiefdom under threat from the previously subservient countries deciding they wanted to be independent and Germany joined in because it had a treaty with the Austrian Empire and was sure an attack on France would simply be a rerun of the 1870's Franco-Prussian War and the UK would keep its nose out of a 'European War'. We all know how that one turned out, the punitive 'in-out' expedition into Serbia ended up killing over 4 million armed forces personnel and more than 10 million civilians. Turkey was known as the sick man of Europe then and not much has changed in the 100 years since.

The Russian plane was not shot down because it spent 17 seconds in Turkish airspace but because it was bombing Turkey's proxy in Syria, the Turkmen ethnic group, who want their part of Syria to become part of Turkey. The Turkmen Terrorists / freedom fighters, take your pick - how about calling them Terrodoms, had no reason to murder the pilot and navigator from the Russian plane but they did and then made sure via Twitter, Facebook and the rest, the world knew they did. The same Turkmen terrodoms would equally and cheerily murder any ethnic Syrian Kurds or Armenians they could get their hands on because they are not Muslims. It does not matter to the Turkmen the Syrian Kurds and Armenians are supposedly allies in the attempt to remove Assad, they would make excuses about them being worse than Assad and deserving to die.

Ankara is also having an increasingly strained relationship with the more secular European mainland part who are not taking kindly to the ever increasing Muslimisation of the Government and the country's laws. Protests and riots against the government in Ankara are a growing feature of life in Istanbul which the recent elections have done little to resolve. Ankara is now facing a new internal battle against Turkey's own Kurdish minority triggered by the Turkish Government turning a blind eye to a suicide bombing attack on a peaceful Kurdish political rally by Daesh. Meanwhile its NATO Allies appear to be ignoring the reality that Turkey is acting a the oil salesman for Daesh and its funding nor complaining about the Turkish blocking of military supplies to the Iraqi Kurdish Forces, forces which have been the most effective in driving Daesh back in Iraq.

Turkey is now seriously schizophrenic as it tries to be a modern state suitable for European and NATO membership while being at heart a failing country, driven ever further into decline by the increasing impact of the Muslim religious schism on its economy which in turn highlights difference and tensions between its ethnic, religious and secular groupings. Without NATO, and especially US, backing Turkey would be hurtling towards collapse under all its internal tensions. Maybe it would be a kindness to let it do so.

Ultimately Turkey will have to decide whether it is a European or a Wahhabist Sunni State, for me the Asia Minor part of Turkey is increasingly the latter. In which case it is time to suspend Turkey's membership of NATO and once and for all make clear it will never be part of the EU, then leave the Middle East to sort out the real driver of conflict in the region the continuous battle between between its Sunni and Shi'ite sects as to which party actually represents the 'true' Islamic Faith and re draw the false and failed boundaries put in place in the 1920's as a result of the Balfour Declaration.

One thing is for sure whether the Russians retaliate against Turkey's stupidity or not, the UK should stand well back, this is not our fight in Syria no matter how hard the idiot Cameron seeks to make it so, leave the USA, Russia and their proxies to grind themselves to a stand still.  There will be no winners in Syria just a lot of losers, losers who will mostly be the ordinary people of Syria and the ordinary people of the rest of the Arabian peninsula. The elites of all sides will do very nicely, thanks very much - just like always.

My real concern remains that we will be drawn into an European conflict through the stupidity and avarice of the USA and Russia, combined with the arrogance and ignorance of Wahhabist Saudi Arabia through a cascade of small events similar to those which brought the war of 1914 into being.

We need to say 'NO' to UK politicians of all stripes.

Update 26/11/15

Further fact checking combined with research by other bloggers has indicated the oil pipe line being used by the Turkish President Erdogan's son to sell on oil from ISIS held oil fields runs through the Turkmen area the Russians were bombing.  

What we are seeing is a supposed ally protecting the income of its corrupt officials and hangers on rather than prosecuting the Daesh problem with any level of commitment. This is the ally Cameron is willing to put UK Forces lives on the line for, in the increasingly failed attempt to displace Assad from Syria to 'warn off Russia'.

(Correction: one of the Russian aircrew did survive but only after one of the helicopters sent to extract him had also been shot down)

The question to Mr Cameron remains - Why on earth are we getting involved in a dog fight which offers no real threat to the UK or the EU except if the 'just cause' he claims for UK participation escalates into all out war in Europe and an ever escalating refugee problem?

Remember you are far more likely to be knocked down and killed by a car or have a fatal fall in your bathroom
in the UK than by any terrorist outrage.

Cameron's statement today basically amounts to: 
  • Stop crossing the road or having a bath or shower just in case you become a victim.


  1. Cracking analysis.

    Lived and worked in Turkiye for 4 years ago and loved it.

    I continue to have many Turkish and Kurdish friends out here in Tokyo - some faith-based but not in-one's- face, some secular.

    Most are more than wary about Erdogan's undermining of the secular constitution and his party's Wahabi agenda.

    He may have pushed the envelope too far on this one as the Russian bear just may smack back and also seek to put NATO in its place, to boot.

    Cameron is a hubristic, murderous infantilist for seeking to get involved in this.

    But, then, most Scots know this only too well.

    Trust we do not finally abrogate the Union over young people coming back in coffins.

    ScotGov canny and sensible, but, surely, if this war-mongering sociopath does a Blair in Syria, this acts as a trigger for abrogation?

    Events will tell.

  2. Error & apologies: "...for 4 years aeons ago...".