Friday, 17 October 2014

Is the dust settling or is more being stirred up?

So we did not win the referendum.

According to the London media and the Westminster Unionists we 'Yes Supporters' should now just shut up, give up and get back in our collective box because, "Cos we won, youse didnae, take that youse bastirds! Sae dae whit we're goan tae tell youse tae dae ir ye'll be for it!"

Except the resounding success for the Union in the referendum does not withstand much analysis beyond the Westminster cat-calling of the Unionist parties combine with the fudging of visuals and graphics in the media.

The Union survived by a ratio of 11:9. In most political contests this is a marginal success as it only takes a 6% swing in a future poll to change this result. Realistically it is equivalent to hanging on by your finger nails. So not really as conclusive a result as Westminster and its tame media is spinning or would like to claim.

The Yes Campaign moved support for independence from 21% in 2012 to 44.5% in 2014 (in political terms that registers as a seismic shift in voting intentions) while the No vote stayed around the same poll share in the mid fifties. More importantly the tipping point amongst the electorate has been reached where independence is not as much of a scary idea as it was in 2012.

The reality is we did not win over sufficient of the declared 18% undecided voters, for what ever reason, to win. The reason is much less likely to do with 'We hate Wee Eck' claims and more to do with voter inertia which always makes the status quo look safer. In Scotland this could be called the 'Aye Been' factor, a factor which is always hard to overcome given the set of assumptions and presumptions this group of voters bring with them as baggage. Anyone who is or has been involved in implementing new processes, systems or ideas in the work place or a charitable organisation knows this group all too well. They are the 'tooth suckers' whose reasons for opposing change always sound reasonable until they are faced with the hard data of what 'Aye Been' has actually achieved and how much behind the competition they now are. Sadly, in life, this group of 'Aye Beeners' routinely have quite a pull in any social or work group because they are 'respected' or 'highly thought of' (read 'highly opinionated'), who most folk can not be bothered arguing with, they have better things to do. The 'Aye Beener's' are at the heart of the Scottish cringe and opposition to any change, in any form, whenever it is proposed.

So we lost and yet the numbers of ordinary Scots who have joined non-Unionist political parties as members now number over 1% of Scotland's adult population, since the 19th of September. The 'failed' SNP Party has seen a membership growth which makes the SNP the third largest party, by membership, in the UK. The SNP's new leader has seen her 'Talk to the membership' roadshow sold out at all venues within a few days of tickets being available and folk are putting themselves on waiting lists for cancelled tickets. The Scottish Greens had to change their annual conference venue to deal with their expanding membership - now bigger than the core membership of Labour's Scotch region.

Meanwhile in Westminster the English dominated parliament has returned to its incestuous best, high jacking the debate on Scottish Devolution for an argument about English Votes for English Laws, threats to disenfranchise MP's to the UK Parliament from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, calls to make Scotland worse off by cutting its pocket money even further, telling Scots the 'Three Stooges' had no legitimate power to make their 'solemn vow' as the UK Parliament had never been consulted or had agreed to the content of the 'solemn vow' or the Gogzilla's time table for devolution.

Television carried the insulting and degrading behaviour of Tory MP's toward the SNP MPs when they tried to address the 'house' on the actual issue of the debate without comment or condemnation. For those who bought the 'greater powers' guff, who thought 'Aye Been' was better, have a careful consideration about how Westminster actually views your misplaced loyalty - with contempt and disregard. The 'Aye Beens' can watch it all on BBC iPlayer, if they dare, maybe they can explain to us cynics on the Yes side just how this farrago of bullying and catcalls demonstrates Westminster's 'respect' of the Scottish electorate's majority wish for full fiscal autonomy in poll after poll.

In the meantime polls in Scotland are showing a slump in Labour voting intention for the May 2015 General Election, the polls now find Labour lagging the Conservatives in Scotland (who are on 20% in the YouGov poll) while the SNP are currently on 41% vote share.

The dust does not appear to be settling and this week's crass behaviour in Westminster towards the Scottish electorate is set to stir even more up. The reality of "Scottish independence - how soon?" still lies heavy in the Scottish political air buoyed by Westminster's broken vows, promises and general indifference.


  1. Jock is not going back into his box.0

  2. We ain't giving up - despite a crap official YES campaign, the grass roots almost won. Had the official YES campaign show some grit and fought back some 6 months to a year earlier we would have won but they woke up too late (and only woke up because the grass roots had changed the tone anway). We ain't giving up and it will at least be a small compensation if we rid Scotland of Red Tories. We have rid ourselves of the Blue ones to a great degree so now we must remove the British state's political authority ove Scotland in May 2015 - a tall order but not impossible if we start now.

  3. The Shortbread tin has shortbread in it, no room for YESSERS. I nearly crawled into mine then took a trip up north and looked at all the YES signs still up and decided it was worth fighting a little longer.
    I have always said that Independence might happen because of some seismic shift which will not be seen until it happens, The end of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall, not many people could foresee those happening but they did.
    The Unionists have a much harder road to travel than we have.